01/30/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 30th, 2023, through Monday, February 6th, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Recent snow brought the majority of Michigan back into the Winter season with colder temperatures than we have been accustomed to on the way as well.

The first half of the week will see on and off snow flurries with the majority staying to the west along the Lake Michigan shoreline. WNW winds will enhance these lake-effect snow showers which may reach more inland, depending on the strength of the wind. As we approach Wednesday, regional High-pressure sets up to our south which will lighten winds and potentially produce some breaks in the clouds to reveal some sunshine. As the week carries on past Wednesday, a cold front comes through which will drop temperatures into the teens for Friday and Saturday with the help of northerly winds bringing in colder air from up north. These winds shift to more southerly as we go into Sunday which will bring temperatures back into the low-30s for much of the region. These conditions carry into Monday to start off next week right where we leave off at the end of this forecast period.

For air quality, consistently light, shifting winds and a cold atmosphere will help keep inversions from lasting too long and trapping particulate matter near the surface. If an inversion does form, it will be short-lived, but the majority of particulates will be able to vertically disperse. Based on some particulate models, however, there appears to be a chance of regional particulate matter that may hang around for a few days but should not be any worse than Moderate concentrations. Wednesday looks to be the day with the highest potential for widespread Moderate concentrations due to the aforementioned High-pressure system causing stagnant conditions. With the help of the cold front coming through later this week, any build up will eventually dissipate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Early next week shows another cold frontal passage which, again, will help clean out any PM-2.5 buildup. Air quality will remain Good heading into next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, February 6th, 2023

01/23/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 23, 2023, through Monday, January 30, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Good with only scattered Moderate readings through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Northern portions of the state may see some snow Monday into Tuesday, but a quiet start to the week is expected across the rest of the state. A more active pattern develops statewide by mid-week as a winter storm tracks from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Snow makes its way into Michigan Wednesday with highest accumulations in southeastern areas and less further northwest. This is the first of three storms that bring chances for snow through the forecast period. Current models show another system Friday into early Saturday and a third early next week. Cooler temperatures will be brought in behind each as highs trend cooler into the weekend.

As for air quality, mostly Good fine particulate is expected Monday and Tuesday aside from a scattered low-Moderate in southern locations. Good levels can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as gusty easterly winds develop ahead of the storm, switching to northwesterly as it pulls away. Weak high pressure building in late Thursday/early Friday could allow for some low-Moderate fine particulate Friday with weaker winds turning southwesterly; however, any build up will improve to Good Saturday as northerly winds develop behind the late week storm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show another storm passing southeast of the state Sunday. If this system remains on track, fine particulate should remain generally Good through early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 30, 2023

1/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 17, 2023, through Monday, January 23, 2023

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period begins with mild temperatures born on southerly winds in advance of an approaching low pressure system.  Air Quality is currently mostly Good with a scattering of Low Moderates.  As that low pressure system moves northeast, Tuesday evening, winds will shift to a more northwesterly direction.  Air Quality will become all Good, throughout the state, at that time. 

The next system is not far behind.  This stronger system will cause winds to shift to eastly by late Wednesday.  Winds will be brisk, and Air Quality is expected to remain Good.  The system will pass through Michigan late Thursday and strong northwest winds will settle in through Friday.

Winds will remain west to southwest for most of the weekend keeping temperatures cooler and Air Quality Good.

 The models are showing the potential for another low pressure system tracking up through the Ohio Valley late in the weekend.  If that prediction happens, we will see the same progression of easterly winds followed by northwesterly winds late Sunday into Monday.  Air Quality should remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 23rd, 2023

1/09/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday January 9th, 2023, through Monday January 16th, 2023

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some parts of Michigan are starting off the week to the ever-evading sun shining through evergreen branches and leaf-less trees. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as clouds return for much of the region tomorrow and last throughout the forecast period. To start off the week, surface temperatures range from the low-30s to the low-40s across Michigan with light winds hanging around the 5-10 mph range. As we approach Thursday, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front comes through and brings precipitation with it. With surface temperatures scattered across the state, the precipitation will be mixed with rain more so in the south and snow the more north you go. This frontal boundary also increases the winds into the weekend, but quickly calms down Sunday as High-pressure drifts in from the north and south and lasts essentially into next week.

In terms of air quality, with the slight increase in temperature, morning hour inversions will be in place for much of the week until the frontal boundary comes through Thursday into Friday. With the morning hour inversions, PM2.5 concentrations will increase as fine particulates become trapped under the inversion and not able to vertically disperse. These concentrations should decrease as each day carries on but will still more than likely hang around the Moderate range for the better half of the week, with some areas seeing concentrations in the middle-high Moderate range. As mentioned above, when the front passes through and the help of WNW winds, PM concentrations will be cleaned out and kept at bay as long as the wind stays steady.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

There appears to be a slight warmup as we start off next week, with southern Michigan returning to the low-40s. Overall, air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 16th, 2023

1/3/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 3, 2023, through Monday, January 9, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather systems over the region keep cloudy conditions through Thursday. Mild temperatures until midweek allows associated precipitation to be in the form of rain south. Cooler temperatures filter in late Wednesday into Thursday changing rain to snow. Accumulating snow is expected further north, however, little to no accumulation will be seen across central and southern Michigan. Weak high pressure slides in for a short time Friday before another system tracking across the Ohio River Valley brings light precipitation across southern portions of the state Saturday. Behind this system, high pressure settles in from the northwest producing dry conditions.

As for air quality, increased surface moisture helps keep fine particulate in the middle Good to middle Moderate range through Thursday. Winds switch to a northwesterly direction Friday improving air quality to more widespread Good readings. Weak winds Saturday may allow for increases of fine particulate to the Moderate range further south, but northeasterly winds developing late Saturday into Sunday should improve any buildup. Fine particulate late in the week will range from Good to low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating early next week. Weaker winds by Monday could allow for increases in fine particulate, but levels higher than Moderate are not expected.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 9, 2023

12/27/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, December 27, 2022, through Tuesday, January 3, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate through most of the work week then mostly Good through the holiday weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a period of persistent cold weather and ample snow, especially along the West Michigan corridor, we should see a period of thawing temperatures during the current work week and holiday weekend.  While we may see a few breaks in the clouds during Wednesday, it does look like the majority of the forecast period will remain cloudy.  It is likely that by the end of December, most of lower Michigan will have only seen around 10% of potential sunlight for the month.

Wednesday should provide the first above-freezing temperatures, following the current cold snap, courtesy of winds shifting to the south and southwest.  By the end of the week, we should see temperatures around 40 degrees.   While this will likely be welcomed to help melt snow off the back roads, warmer air over snow typically is a good catalyst for producing fine particulates.  Even though a good breeze will help stir things around, I still see the likelihood of Low Moderates in the majority of the Lower Peninsula.

A cold front is expected to pass during Friday, which will give us a wind shift and cleaner air, although temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for the remainder of this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, January 3, 2023

12/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 19, 2022, through Tuesday, December 27, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Tis the Monday before Christmas, and Michigan may be in for a treat later this week. There is growing confidence of impactful snow for the Great Lakes region just days before the Christmas holiday.

To start off the week, however, relatively quiet weather is in store for Michigan as a High-pressure system is influencing the region with light winds and stable atmospheric conditions. This system will give way to a rather weak Low-pressure system to our north Tuesday into Wednesday. Northern Michigan may be more impacted by this system with potential snow showers, but southern Michigan will only feel a drop in temperatures as the frontal boundary traverses through the region. Things become more interesting as we approach the latter half of the week with the potential of a winter storm impacting the Great Lakes region. Model guidance is still being fine-tuned, but confidence is growing for impactful snow and blustery conditions Thursday evening through Saturday. Position and strength of the Low-pressure system will determine the exact amount and location of snowfall, with windy conditions becoming more likely. Due to this system, travel plans will be disrupted and need to be planned accordingly.

After the system passes and the Christmas holiday approaches, temperatures will be nearing the coldest of the season thus far with high temperatures only peaking in the teens in most areas. The strong winds throughout the weekend will drop wind chills to the single digits and even into the below-zero range. Temperatures look to rebound into the mid-20s on Monday with quiet weather returning to start next week with High-pressure in place to our south.

In terms of air quality, in the beginning half of the week, due to the stable conditions, atmospheric inversions are expected for the morning hours and may last into the afternoon. This will allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to rise into the Moderate range for a couple hours before dropping back down to Good, as winds slowly increase throughout each day. Tuesday looks to be the day with the highest potential of PM-2.5 concentrations reaching the Moderate range. The passage of the cold front Tuesday into Wednesday, however, will help to clean out any concentration buildup. As stated above, an increase in winds associated with the system later this week will keep particulate concentrations low and Good through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Breezy conditions last through the beginning of next week, which will help keep overall air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, December 27, 2022

12/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 12, 2022, through Monday, December 19, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet early this week with surface high pressure positioned well north of the region. This does not last, however, as a more active pattern develops by mid-week. Before then, lighter easterly winds should keep fine particulate at bay. Pollution readings ranging from upper Good to low Moderate through Tuesday are expected. Winds turn a bit more southeasterly and moisture increases bringing in chances for precipitation Wednesday. Temperature ranges across the state bring with it ranges of precipitation types; anticipate mostly rain across the south and snow further north. Wind speeds increase as the storm system develops which should keep fine particulate from increasing much past upper Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cold conditions for the week prior to Christmas and there also looks to be a few possibilities for snow showers. Pollution levels into next week should stay consistent in the upper Good to low Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 19, 2022

12/05/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 5, 2022, through Monday December 12, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate for the duration of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Southwest flow over our area, on backside of a surface high that is now located over the mid-Atlantic coast, will bring a gradual increase in moisture/clouds today.  Low pressure moving across Ontario will push a weak cold front through the region this afternoon through Tuesday. Along with increasing clouds today, we will see by a chance of light rain this afternoon as the front moves southeast. 

Once this system passes, expect calm conditions with temperatures at or above average for this time of year.  With increasing stagnant air and increased burning of fuels for heating, we can also expect an increase of fine particulates during mid-week.  It will likely start in Southeast Michigan, because of the increased population base, and spread through the rest of the lower half of the Lower Peninsula.

A stronger system is expected at the end of the work week which should clean out the atmosphere for the remainder of the forecast period. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 12, 2022

11/28/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday November 28th, 2022, through December 5th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a Thanksgiving holiday and weekend of relatively above-average surface temperatures, Michigan will see temperatures return to seasonal averages this week. Classic November weather is expected in the beginning half of this week with temperatures in the 40s and mostly cloudy skies. This pattern is disrupted Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region bringing windy conditions and dropping high temperatures to the mid-to-upper 20s throughout the state. Along with this cold front, mixed precipitation is possible with lake-effect snow on the table as well. Compared to what was seen a couple weeks ago with lake-effect snow, this event will be minimal with only an inch or two of snow being predicted in the Great Lakes snowbelts. The blustery conditions calm down throughout the day on Thursday, but temperatures hover around freezing, however.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, a High-pressure system drifts in from the south and remains in the Ohio River valley, but still influences our winds. Later in the week, winds will shift to more SSE bringing warmer temperatures from the south. This increase in temperatures will be short-lived as yet another cold front passes through on Saturday, dropping temperatures back to around freezing. Blustery conditions return as well, and temperatures hang around the freezing mark to end the weekend.

In terms of air quality, morning hour inversions will continue throughout the week. With the help of the passing cold fronts, the inversions should not pose a threat to an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. There appears to be an inversion this morning, Monday, that will persist into the afternoon, but as winds increase, the inversion will dissipate. Over the holiday weekend, there was enough air dispersion, so particulates did not build up as much. We suspect this will be the case for this forecast period due to the passing frontal boundaries and increase in winds throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures look to rebound to start next week before another cold front approaches next Tuesday into Wednesday. Overall air quality will be Good to start next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday December 5th, 2022

11/21/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 21st, 2022, through Monday, November 28th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Moderate this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quite weather conditions are in store early this week, but after the snowfall from last week and this past weekend you can expect a climb in fine particulate levels thanks to warmer air/winds flowing over the snowpack. This fine particulate increase is typical after a snowfall when snow then melts creating increased surface moisture over the region. Stronger winds Monday should help levels stay in the Good to low Moderate range; however, as weak high pressure settles in through mid-week producing lighter winds, fine particulate will continue increasing. While hourly concentrations, mostly in the early to late-morning, may reach USG we anticipate daily averages to stay in the middle to upper Moderate range through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to pass later Thanksgiving (Thursday) which should help clear out some of the build-up by Friday. If fine particulate levels increase faster than anticipated where we feel an Action Day is warranted, then this forecast will be updated.

Aside from chances for precipitation late on Thanksgiving into Friday, quite conditions are anticipated. Current forecast models are keeping the next weather system south of the state and over the Ohio valley this coming weekend. If this storm tracks further north, then precipitation could reach lower Michigan Sunday. Temperatures through this period look to be mild for this time of year and lighter winds will be in place, especially Saturday into early Sunday. Because of this, daily Moderate fine particulate will continue over much of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a wind shift to the north as the weekend system moves east of the region. If this storm track pans out, fine particulate should improve early next week, but if this shift does not occur, generally Moderate levels will continue.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach

Next forecast update: Monday, November 28, 2022

11/14/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 14th, 2022, through Monday, November 21st, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the duration of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This week promises to have the coldest sustained temperatures of the season, to date.  Along with the cold temperatures, expect mostly cloudy conditions and a persistent threat of snow show showers, especially along the western lake shore.

 There will be several opportunities for winter weather, this week.  An upper level low over lower Canada will have the majority influence on our weather Tuesday through Wednesday.  With the cold temperatures, I expect any precipitation, this week, will come in the form of snow showers.

A cold air mass with brisk westerly winds will drop southward by Thursday to bring a continued chance of snow through Friday, especially along the western lake shore.

 The saga continues into the weekend as another system swings through with some associated snow and more lake enhanced snow.

 The good news is that Air Quality is expected to the be Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood

Next forecast update: Monday, November 21, 2022

11/7/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 7th, 2022, through Monday, November 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan will see a whirlwind of surface temperatures this upcoming week as above-average temperatures continue through the majority of this week. The rapid change in temperature comes Friday as a Low-pressure system and relatively strong cold front traverses through the region. Temperatures will drop to somewhat below average temperatures with surface high temperatures barely eclipsing the 40-degree mark in most areas over the weekend.

To start off the week, however, temperatures remain in the 50s with breezy conditions throughout the state due to the NNW flow that is in place. Temperatures continue to climb through Thursday where 70-degree surface temperatures are possible in some southern portions of the state. Winds shift to a more southerly flow Tuesday evening which will provide the above-average temperatures to most of Michigan. As we carry on through Thursday and into Friday, the aforementioned Low-pressure and cold front enters the region from the west bringing precipitation in some areas and windy conditions throughout the state. Lower surface temperatures and breezy conditions will last through the weekend and into next week.

For air quality, PM-2.5 will be in the Good to low-Moderate range with possible higher concentrations in the morning hours due to low-level inversions. For much of this week, however, winds should be steady enough to dissipate inversions and the build up of PM-2.5 concentrations throughout the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Below-average temperatures stick around to start off next week along with NNW breezy conditions. This will help keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay to start next week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, November 14th, 2022

10/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 31st, 2022, through Monday, November 7th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday is the last day in October which means its Halloween, but it also marks the last day of forecasting ozone for the 2022 season. Cloudy and damp conditions are currently in place across the southern half of the state where scattered showers are possible Monday. After the current system passes through, high pressure moves in with dry and warmer than normal temperatures expected. The next chance for precipitation comes Friday in the northwest as a boundary approaches from the west.

As for air quality, being later in the season, ozone will remain Good, and as stated above, this will be the last ozone forecast until spring of 2023. Fine particulate has been averaging Moderate across much of the state Monday, and moisture associated with the system moving across southeastern areas will keep Moderate readings across lower Michigan. High pressure builds in for the next few days keeping winds on the lighter side. Without a decent wind shift from the Monday system, fine particulate lingering in the Moderate range is likely, especially in southern more urban locations. The anticipated fine particulate range the rest of the workweek will be from upper Good to middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show wind speeds picking up from the south later in the period. There is some uncertainty on the timing of a cold front passing the state later in the weekend. Warmer conditions continue and unless a boundary moves through producing an airmass change, we expect fine particulate to remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach

Next forecast update: Monday, November 7th, 2022

10/24/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 24, 2022, through Monday October 31, 2022

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good.

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate early in the week, transitioning to Good by midweek.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

It is always a joy when Indian Summer and Michigan peak color change occur at the same time. The warmer weather and clear skies did trigger some ozone creep into the low 60 ppb range during Saturday and in the 50’s during Sunday.  That is higher than normal, for this time of year, but did not cause any additional damage to our ozone attainment design values.  PM-2.5 values are also currently running in the Moderate range, which may be due to some overhead smoke filtering down.

Monday and Tuesday will be the last days of the warmer weather.  A slow-moving front, just west of the Mississippi River, at the time of this Monday morning forecast, will continue to track eastward.  Shower activity is likely during Tuesday as this front approaches.  As the front progresses across Michigan, Wednesday morning, expect a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly.  High pressure and clearing skies will settle in behind the front for late week and the weekend yielding daily high temperatures in the 50’s and nighttime lows in the upper 30’s.  Perhaps perfect weather for football and Halloween weekend activities?

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Although we are losing our Indian Summer by midweek, Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good after Tuesday.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood. Next Forecast update is on Monday, October 31st, 2022.

10/17/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 17th, 2022, through Friday October 21st, 2022

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good for the forecast period.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Early season snow will impact some parts of Michigan to start off this week. Areas north of mid-Michigan will experience some accumulation with areas south possibly seeing a few flakes here and there. This is due to a rather strong Low-pressure system and associated cold front making its way through the region through Tuesday evening. The first half of the week will see surface temperatures in the 30s to 40s with on and off precipitation along with overcast skies for the most part. As we approach Thursday, however, skies start to clear, and temperatures start to rebound back to the 50s in most areas. Once the Low-pressure exits the area, winds shift to more SSW which will bring in warmer air from the south along with breezy conditions.

In terms of air quality, due to the Low-pressure and cold front, both Ozone and PM-2.5 concentrations will not be of issue during the first half of the week with conditions in the Good range. As we approach the latter half of the week, there may be some low-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations, but I do not expect any long-standing conditions due to the breezy conditions both Thursday and Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The breezy conditions continue through the weekend keeping Ozone and PM-2.5 conditions at bay.

Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki. Next Forecast update is on Friday October 21st, 2022.

10/14/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, October 14th, 2022, through Monday, October 17th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool temperatures and on and off showers pretty much sums up the forecast for this weekend into early next week. This can be attributed to low pressure dominating conditions and disturbances moving through will also enhance precipitation from time to time. Parts of the state may see the first snowflakes of the season as temperatures may fall enough for snow to mix in with rain showers.

As for air quality, hourly fine particulate may reach Moderate at southern locations during the morning hours; however, any increase will fall during the late morning, and fine particulate is expected to range Good through the weekend. Ozone will also average Good thanks to clouds and cool temperatures.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cool to cold conditions lingering through mid-week next week. With that, generally Good air quality is anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Monday, October 17th, 2022

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

10/11/2022 Forecaset Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 10th, 2022, through Friday, October 14th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate Monday and Tuesday, with Good levels the rest of the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A nice fall day is in store Monday which will last into part of Tuesday; however, the next system is approaching from the west. This system lifts a warm front north producing a strong southwesterly wind Tuesday which could allow temperatures to reach close to 70 degrees. Precipitation can also be expected to travel southwest to northeast later in the day. An associated cold front passes west to east Wednesday keeping showers and storms in the forecast. By Thursday, northwesterly winds behind the boundary ushers in cooler temperatures and the northwesterly flow brings in the possibility of scattered lake effect showers.

As for air quality, fine particulate will be the driving pollutant during the forecast period. Lighter winds Monday, and increased moisture on a southwest wind Tuesday could cause scattered low Moderate concentrations, generally across the southern portion of the state. Precipitation Wednesday and expected northerly winds behind the front keeps fine particulate levels generally Good Wednesday through Friday. Even though surface temperatures increase Tuesday and southwesterly wind develop, cooler upper-level and surface temperatures, coupled with the earlier sunset this time of year, will keep ozone concentrations Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating south of the state while a boundary may keep precipitation around across the north. Regardless, conditions should be active enough in the long term to keep pollution levels mostly Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday, October 14th, 2022

10/07/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday October 7th, 2022, through Monday October 10th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Earlier in the week, Michigan was riddled with atmospheric inversions which essentially “capped” the ability for vertical movement in the atmosphere. This caused numerous mornings to have moderate to USG-level PM-2.5 concentrations. The concentrations only last for a few hours until winds picked up in the early afternoon, but it is worth noting the cause of the high concentrations. For this weekend, Michigan will start out cooler than we were this past week thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cold front that traversed the region Thursday evening. There may be some leftover lake-effect rain showers up and down the coast of Michigan throughout the day Friday, but this gives way to a high-pressure system to our west. Saturday warms up slightly with more surface temperatures in the low-50s mainly due to westerly flow. Sunday continues the trend of slight warming with some surface temperatures reaching the low-60s with WNW winds. There appears to be a weak frontal boundary setting up to pass through Sunday, but this will not cause any disturbances to the forecasted surface temperatures and relative sunshine. Once the frontal boundary passes, a high-pressure sets up over us providing ample sunshine and light winds.

In terms of air quality, Ozone continues to be a non-issue due to seasonally cooler temperatures and lack of strong sunlight that we typically see in the early-to-mid summer months. As stated above, PM-2.5 concentrations were interesting this week due to stagnant conditions from atmospheric inversions in the morning hours. This weekend does not look like it will have those same morning hour high concentrations as light surface winds will be prominent through each day, but there may be some low-Moderates hanging around for a few hours. These concentrations will be cleaned out with the passing of the weak frontal boundary Sunday evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The week starts out with high-pressure over the region providing Good air quality.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, October 10th, 2022

10/03/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 3rd, 2022, through Friday October 7th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will mostly be in the Good range for the forecast period with some possible low-Moderate concentrations near the middle of the period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations will range from Good to Moderate for this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some areas around Michigan woke up to frost and fog this Monday morning as stagnant conditions remain in place. Regional high-pressure will stick around the Midwest until Thursday when a low-pressure system and associated cold front traverses through the region. The beginning half of the week will remain dry and relatively sunny thanks to the aforementioned high-pressure, with surface temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s. These temperatures are aided by clear skies and SSW winds. Once the low-pressure comes through on Thursday late-morning, temperatures will start to drop with Friday surface temperatures only reaching the upper 40s mostly due to NNW winds and overcast skies. Along with cooler temperatures, rain may accompany the overcast skies throughout Michigan.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will be Good this week with possible hourly values in the Moderate range. As mentioned above, SSW winds and sunny skies will allow for some Ozone development to occur. These concentrations quickly dissipate as the low-pressure and cold front come through the region in the latter half of the week. For PM-2.5, stagnant atmospheric conditions in the beginning half of the week will allow for particulate matter to accrue in the morning hours. Concentrations will diminish with the help of light winds throughout the day, but there may be some Moderate concentrations for a couple hours each day. Smoke models show the possibility of smoke being present in the region this week but should not pose any threat for large quantities of concentrations. Overall, 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good with the possibility of a few low-Moderates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Cooler temperatures stick around through the weekend with surface temperatures in the 50s with the return of high-pressure to our south. Overall air quality should remain Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Friday, October 7th, 2022