07/23/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 23rd, 2023, through Monday July 24th, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the mid-to-high Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some parts of Michigan wake up this morning to moderate downpours and rumbles of thunder. These quick-hitting line of storms were initiated by an upper-level disturbance which made its way to our area overnight. These storms should move across the state throughout the morning before allowing sunshine to come in the afternoon. Any buildup of PM-2.5 and Ozone concentrations the past few days may have been impacted by this rain resulting in potentially lower concentrations today, Sunday. Ozone needed to be looked at for tomorrow, Monday, due to potential buildup but that does not look like the case anymore. Ozone is expected to stay out over the lake and not impact lakeshore areas in the long term. Winds look to stay south just long enough to keep Ozone at bay for our area. As stated yesterday, hourly concentrations may approach the USG threshold but overall 8-hour averages will be in the Moderate range. PM-2.5 looks to increase region-wide tomorrow into Tuesday with some concentrations approaching the high Moderate range; those concentrations will continue to be looked at throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We see a warmup this week with surface temperatures well into the 90s. Air quality will be monitored throughout the week.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 24th, 2023. Forecast Updated by Alec Knowacki.

07/22/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday July 22nd, 2023, through Sunday July 23rd, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the mid-to-high Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This Saturday morning provides winds staying more southerly throughout today and tomorrow, Sunday. This will keep our surface temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s throughout the state, through the weekend and into next week. An upper-level disturbance makes its way through the lower peninsula overnight which may trigger some short-lived rain during the Sunday morning hours. As the afternoon approaches, the rain should be moving off to the southeast and bringing the clouds with it as the sun is expected to come back out mid-afternoon.

As stated in yesterday’s forecast update, Ozone will be continued to be looked at but as of now, it does not look like widespread Ozone will be an issue for western lakeshore counites. The wind direction predominantly staying southerly, cloudy morning and early afternoon conditions, along with potential rain shower will help keep Ozone production low. If by chance Ozone does develop, it will mainly stay out over the lake and may only impact hourly concentrations. Overall 8-hour averages for Ozone are expected to be in the mid-to-high Moderate range for Sunday and Monday, as of now. Ozone for Monday will be looked at tomorrow morning. PM-2.5 looks to remain in the Good to moderate range throughout the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week sees quite the warmup with surface temperatures well into the 90s with southerly winds. Overall air quality will be looked at throughout the week.

Next Forecast update: Sunday July 23rd, 2023. Forecast Updated by Alec Knowacki

07/21/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday July 21st, 2023 through Saturday July 22nd, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

How we end the work week is exactly how we start off the weekend with partly sunny skies and surface temperatures hanging around the upper-70s to low-80s. The airmass that was brought to us with the passing cold front yesterday, Thursday, hangs around through the weekend, with no major change in airmass until Monday. Winds will remain predominantly NNE today before slowly shifting to WSW tomorrow afternoon. As we approach Sunday, winds complete their shift and becoming more southwesterly flow all day Sunday and through Monday.

Due to the warm temperatures, ample sunlight and favorable winds for Ozone development, this forecast will be updated tomorrow, Saturday, to get a better look at conditions for Sunday. Upper-level temperatures appear to remain in the low-teens Celsius throughout the weekend, but this year has shown us Ozone developing in atypical scenarios. Traditionally, upper-level temperatures in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius and a southwest wind would be indicative of Ozone development, but we have seen cooler temperatures be conducive for Ozone this year. As of now, most models are not showing too much Ozone developing ashore in West Michigan, or at least over the USG threshold, but to play it safe, I will take a better look tomorrow with updated models and forecasts. For PM-2.5, we continue to see low-mid Moderate in some areas, and Good concentrations in other areas. Wildfire smoke does not look to be an issue for the foreseeable future.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A front comes through most of the state on Monday but looks to stall over the southern portion of the lower peninsula. Winds look to remain SW so this will be looked at throughout the weekend.

Next Forecast update: Saturday July 22nd, 2023. Forecast updated by Alec Knowacki.

07/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 17th, 2023, through Friday July 21st, 2023

PM-2.5:PM-2.5 concentrations will range from Moderate to USG to start off the week before declining more into the Moderate range.

OZONE:Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

PM-2.5 Air Quality Action Day Advisory for Monday, July 17th, 2023

The Action Day Advisory for Monday, July 17th is for the following counties in the central and southern portions of the Lower Peninsula:

Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Midland, Bay, Huron, Muskegon, Montcalm, Gratiot, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Wayne, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today, Monday, is an Air Quality Action Day for portions of the central and southern Lower Peninsula due to PM-2.5 concentrations hanging around from Canadian wildfire smoke. These concentrations are expected to move off to the east as the day carries on with overall PM-2.5 values expected to remain below the alert threshold through the work week. To start off the week, we see surface temperatures scattered throughout the 70s with some 80s in the southern areas with mainly westerly winds flowing through the region. This trend continues as we go into Tuesday with a High-pressure system sliding into areas to the north, which will shift winds to a more southerly direction through Wednesday. Wednesday going into Thursday is expected to bring us a frontal boundary and associated cold front with a chance of rain showers. This system exits the area rather quickly but not without dropping temperatures back into the 70s for Friday.

As mentioned above, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to diminish as the work week carries on, with no real threat of returning wildfire smoke for the foreseeable future. Since smoke models only forecast out a couple of days, we will keep an eye on updated model runs and will make updates to the forecast as needed if any alert-able smoke is looking to impact the state. Ozone does not look to be a threat this week as westerly winds and temperatures predominantly in the low-80s keep Ozone concentrations at bay. There may be an uptick in concentrations on Wednesday, but widespread Ozone issues are not expected. The airmass change and chance of rain on Thursday will help clean out any concentration buildup of both PM-2.5 and Ozone.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast looks relatively similar to this week’s forecast with temperatures in the 70s and low-80s with mainly westerly winds. Overall air quality will be in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday July 21st, 2023. Forecast updated by Alec Knowacki.

07/16/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, July 16, 2023, through Monday, July 17, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will average mostly Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG).

Air Quality Action Day Advisories have been issued for Sunday, July 16th and Monday, July 17th, 2023

The Action Day Advisory for Sunday, July 16th is a Statewide Alert.

The Action Day Advisory for Monday, July 17th is for the following counties in the central and southern portions of the Lower Peninsula:

Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Midland, Bay, Huron, Muskegon, Montcalm, Gratiot, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Wayne, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Smoke forecast models continue to show the smoke plume tracking through the state Sunday into Monday and this plume is clearly seen on satellite imagery Sunday morning. Increases in PM2.5 concentrations have been recorded Sunday morning across the western portion of the state and increases in concentrations will move east and continue through much of today. Air Quality Index (AQI) levels into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range are likely with possible hourly concentrations into the Unhealthy level. The smoke plume pushes south Monday as a boundary moves through. This will improve PM2.5 levels across the northern portion of the state. The plume, however, remains across central and southern locations keeping the threat for increased PM2.5. Because of this, we are extending the Air Quality Action Day into Monday for the counties noted above.

Chances for precipitation Sunday, then cooler surface and upper-level temperatures Monday should keep ozone from increasing the next few days. However, increases in PM2.5 are known to enhance ozone production. We are forecasting Moderate ozone Sunday and Monday, but we will be watching ozone levels and if we feel ozone will increase into the USG range, we will update the necessary forecast areas to reflect the change, triggering EnviroFlash notifications.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

There are signs the smoke plume could clear the region early next week, but lingering fine particulate could keep both PM2.5 and ozone in the Moderate range.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Sunday, July 16th, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Monday, July 17th, 2023

07/15/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 15, 2023, through Sunday, July 16, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will average mostly Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG).

An Air Quality Action Day Advisory has been issued for Sunday, July 16th, 2023 for PM-2.5.

This is a statewide alert.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Smoke forecast models continue to show a large plume originating from wildfires in western and central Canada sinking in from the northwest. Evidence of this is seen by increased PM2.5 readings late Friday and early Saturday to our west across Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. As the plume continues moving east/southeast, increases in ground level PM2.5 across our state are expected.

This plume will affect the Upper Peninsula first and we have an Air Quality Action Day in place Saturday highlighting the threat for USG PM2.5 concentrations. The threat for USG PM2.5 moves south across the rest of the state Sunday; therefore, we are issuing a statewide Air Quality Action Day for Sunday. While we anticipate daily averages of PM2.5 to stay USG hourly concentrations into the Unhealthy level are possible during this event.

Clouds in the forecast with rain chances should keep ozone in check Saturday and Sunday, but ozone concentrations will be watched along with the PM2.5 trends. Increased PM2.5 is known to enhance ozone production. We are forecasting Moderate ozone both Saturday and Sunday across the state, but if we feel ozone will increase into the USG range, we will update our forecast areas to reflect the change, triggering EnviroFlash notifications.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

There are signs the smoke plume could clear the region early next week, but lingering fine particulate could increase ozone concentrations. Conditions will be evaluated daily until the threat for increased pollution ends across the state.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Saturday, July 15th, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Sunday, July 16th, 2023

07/14/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 14th, 2023, through Saturday, July 15th, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Smoke forecast models show a large plume originating from wildfires in western and central Canada sinking in from the northwest behind a frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday. As the plume tracks southeast, increases in ground level PM2.5 are expected in the Upper Peninsula. With that, an Air Quality Action Day has been issued for some Upper Peninsula counties.

Across the rest of the state, PM2.5 concentrations should not reach higher than Moderate on Saturday. However, as the boundary and plume both continue moving south/southeast, the rest of the state may experience elevated PM2.5 levels on Sunday. We will be evaluating updated smoke and forecast models Saturday morning to determine if an Air Quality Action Day will need to be issued for Sunday.

The forementioned boundary will bring in the threat for showers and storms at the end of this week. During this period ozone concentrations should remain in check with readings higher than Moderate not expected.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Forecast models show an unsettled weather period with on and off chances for precipitation. There are signs the smoke plume could clear the region early next week, but conditions will be evaluated daily until the threat for increased pollution ends across the state.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Friday, July 14th, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Saturday, July 15th, 2023

07/10/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 10th, 2023, through Friday, July 14th, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations Monday will range between Good and Moderate north and Moderate to USG south; Good to Moderate readings are expected the rest of the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good to Moderate

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A boundary sinking into the region brings clouds and precipitation chances Monday across the Upper Peninsula while dry conditions can be expected further south in the Lower Peninsula. Ample sunshine combined with southerly winds and warm surface and upper-level temperatures sets the stage for ozone development in the most prone locations; the western lakeshore and the southeastern portions of the state. We had an Air Quality Action Day in place on Monday in those areas to cover this threat. As the boundary treks southeast through the state, clouds and precipitation move with it late Monday into the day Tuesday. This boundary looks to stall just south of the state Wednesday with cooler temperatures in its wake.

As mentioned above, we had an Air Quality Action Day in place on Monday where 8-hour ozone concentrations into the USG range were possible. Across the rest of the state, levels will average Good to Moderate. Clouds increase from northwest to southeast Tuesday. This increase in cloud cover should help keep ozone from significantly developing, but Moderate readings are still possible, especially in the south/southeast. If clouds hold off Tuesday in the southeast where mostly sunny conditions linger there is a chance a monitor may increase back into the USG range, but that threat isn’t high enough at this time to warrant an action day. For the rest of the period, unsettled conditions are expected as the Wednesday boundary stalls south of the state. Some cloud cover and on and off storm chances should keep ozone from increasing higher than Moderate Thursday and Friday. If this changes, the forecast will be updated.

As for fine particulate, smoke models were evaluated, and a plume is overhead Monday with another plume associated with the approaching frontal boundary expected to move in as the front passes. The plumes, however, are not expected to significantly increase ground level fine particulate concentrations. As a conservative measure, we are forecasting Moderate levels both Monday and Tuesday. Cooler northerly winds should bring levels closer to Good, but the boundary south of the region may allow for Moderate levels in the south Thursday and Friday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Forecast models show cooler temperatures with on and off precipitation chances through the coming weekend. If this forecast pans out, air quality levels in the long-term period should be Good to low Moderate.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Monday, July 10th, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Friday, July 14th, 2023

07/09/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: sunday, july 9, 2023 through monday, july 10, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate Sunday, with USG levels possible Monday

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will also range between Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a rainy Saturday, conditions dry out Sunday with high pressure in control. Plenty of sunshine is expected with seasonable temperature. Surface winds turn southerly during the day, but a northerly upper-level flow and cooler temperatures should keep ozone and fine particulate in the Good to Moderate range.

By Monday, the high slides east with southerly winds both at the surface and upper-levels bringing in warmer conditions. The next weather system will be approaching from the northwest. Clouds and precipitation move into the upper portion of the state, but plenty of sunshine is expected across most of the lower Peninsula. Mondays anticipated weather conditions are conducive for increased ozone; therefore, we are issuing an Air Quality Action Day for ozone on Monday in parts of west and southeast Michigan.

As for fine particulate, smoke models were evaluated and a plume sinks into the region Monday ahead of the next weather system. The plume does not seem to be thick enough to significantly increase fine particulate, but Moderate readings by Monday are likely.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Forecast models show on and off precipitation chances through the coming week. Air quality levels will be detailed tomorrow with the Monday update, but at this time we don’t anticipate readings higher than Moderate.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, July 10, 2023

07/07/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday, july 7, 2023 through sunday, july 9, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will also range between Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure in control Friday provides comfortable, less humid conditions. A storm system moves through the region Saturday bringing precipitation chances from west to east starting late Friday night into Saturday. High pressure then moves back into the area drying conditions out Sunday into Monday.

As for air quality, plenty of sunshine will be seen Friday, however, cooler surface and upper-level temperatures keep ozone Good to low Moderate. Clouds increase Saturday and precipitation moves into the forecast as well. These conditions should keep ozone in the Good range. Clouds decrease Sunday as high pressure moves in, but cooler temperatures and northerly winds allow for ozone to average Good to Moderate.

Smoke forecast models keep thick smoke out of the region through the coming weekend. With that, we anticipate fine particulate levels to remain mostly Good to low Moderate. The only exception would be in locations yet holding fireworks displays in celebration of the July 4th holiday. Any evening hourly PM2.5 increases should improve by late morning/early afternoon the following day.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Forecast models show sunny, warmer conditions by Monday as winds switch to more of a southerly direction. With that, the threat for increased ozone exists. This forecast will be updated Sunday to determine if ozone readings will increase to levels requiring an Action Day.

 Next Forecast update: Sunday, July 9, 2023

07/04/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: TUESDAY, July 4TH, 2023, THROUGH FRIDAY, JULY 7, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Moderate and USG Tuesday and Wednesday, then Good to Moderate Thursday and Friday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels are expected to remain Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast remains on track for warm, humid conditions to continue this July 4th holiday. The sunny conditions compiled with southerly winds and warm surface and upper-level temperatures will make a good setup for increased ozone. Due to this threat, we have issued an Action Day for ozone for Tuesday, July 4th. The threat for higher ozone lingers into Wednesday, therefore, we are continuing the Action Day into July 5th as well. A change in the forecast comes later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front passes through the state. Precipitation comes into play as the boundary moves through and cooler temperatures in its wake brings in lower ozone concentrations. Levels Thursday and Friday should range Good to Moderate.

 Daily average PM2.5 readings the past few days have been between Good to Moderate. Some locations have experienced evening hourly concentrations into the USG range, but those increases have been associated with fireworks displays in celebration of the July 4th holiday. Any evening hourly PM2.5 increases should improve by late morning/early afternoon the following day. We anticipate daily PM2.5 averages to continue Good to Moderate the next few days with levels improving towards Good behind the Thursday front as winds switch to a northerly direction.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Forecast models show sunny and seasonable conditions for the end of the week. This forecast will be updated Friday to detail expected air quality levels for the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Next Forecast update: Friday, July 7, 2023

07/03/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MONDAY, JULY 3RD, THROUGH TUESDAY, July 4TH, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will range mostly Moderate Monday with a range of Moderate to USG Tuesday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate through the period should range mostly Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As anticipated, ozone concentrations look to begin increasing Monday and more so Tuesday as winds switch to a southerly direction. Contributing to the threat for increased ozone will be plentiful sunshine, southerly winds, and warmer temperatures both at the surface and upper levels. Maximum 8-hour ozone Monday should remain generally Moderate, with isolated USG possible along the western lakeshore and in the southeast. The threat for higher concentrations remains Tuesday and being the second day with this set-up, increased ozone in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range is more likely. Therefore, we are issuing an Action Day for Tuesday covering the western lakeshore areas and the southeast portion of the state.

Overall PM2.5 levels continue to improve as wildfire smoke has less ground level influence over the region. We anticipate daily averages of PM2.5 to remain generally Moderate, however, localized higher concentrations can be expected due to fireworks displays in celebration of the 4th of July. Any evening hourly PM2.5 increases should improve by late morning/early afternoon the following day. 

This forecast will be updated tomorrow, Tuesday, July 4, to look ahead at potential Ozone issues for Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Forecast models show sunny and warm conditions continuing Wednesday before a frontal boundary brings precipitation into the forecast. The possibility exists for another day of increased ozone on Wednesday; therefore, this forecast will be updated tomorrow to determine if the Action Day will need to be continued.

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, July 4, 2023

07/02/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 2nd, 2023, through Monday July 3rd

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the high Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the mid-to-high Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We have seen great improvement in the overall air quality throughout the day yesterday and into this morning. Some PM-2.5 values were still relatively high on the west side of Michigan near Holland, MI, where the 24-hour average there for PM-2.5 was above the USG level. Everywhere else in Michigan was in the mid-to-high Moderate range. We will see this continue throughout the day and, throughout the week until we get a good airmass change with a strong frontal boundary. These high PM-2.5 concentrations will be aided by firework displays throughout the holiday weekend and heading into the 4th of July, so values may increase above the USG threshold for a few hours but return to the Moderate range.

Ozone may continue to increase throughout the day due to precursors staying within the air into tomorrow, Monday. Some areas in southeast Michigan may increase into the USG threshold but will not be widespread enough to issue an Ozone Air Quality Alert. Ozone levels will be watched throughout the day tomorrow, however.

EXTENDED FORECAST: We look towards Tuesday as Ozone may become a widespread issue across the state.

Next Forecast Update: Monday July 3rd, 2023

07/01/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday July 1st, 2023 through Sunday July 2nd, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to hourly USG range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Continued and welcomed air quality improvement has been seen in the overnight hours for PM-2.5 and Ozone. PM-2.5 values still appear to be in the mid-to-high Moderate range this morning and will continue to hang around those values throughout the day. Occasional jumps into the USG range should be expected as firework displays will be aplenty throughout the weekend and will add to PM-2.5 concentrations. The PM-2.5 values we saw earlier this week are not expected to occur later this weekend, but as stated above, occasional increase into the USG range should be expected. Winds shift to more southerly flow throughout the day which will continue to improve PM-2.5 values as concentrations to our south in Illinois and Indiana are Good and Moderate. This is a reason for not continuing the PM-2.5 alert into tomorrow as concentrations will continue to drop into the Moderate range. However, these shifts in winds will present an issue for Ozone for areas in west and southeast Michigan, for this is the reason there is an Ozone Air Quality Alert in place for those areas today. All other alerts will end at midnight tonight and tomorrow will not have any Air Quality Alerts.

This forecast will be updated tomorrow, Sunday, morning to look ahead at potential Ozone issues for Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST: We look ahead to early next week and the 4th of July holiday which will have potential Ozone issues and considerably less smoke.

Next Forecast Update: Sunday July 2nd, 2023

06/30/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday June 30th, 2023, through Saturday July 1st, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Although PM-2.5 concentrations appear to be improving throughout the state this Friday morning, we still expect PM-2.5 levels to be above the alert-able USG threshold for a 24-hour average today and tomorrow, Saturday. We do not expect to see Very Unhealthy concentrations which were seen earlier this week, but hourly concentrations in the Unhealthy range can be expected. To compound the wildfire smoke, 4th of July festivities including firework displays will contribute to PM-2.5 concentrations, so this a reason why concentrations may increase on an hourly basis throughout each day during this weekend and into next week.

As mentioned in yesterday’s forecast, Ozone joins in on the alert for today and into tomorrow. Ozone was expanded to statewide today because USG to Unhealthy Ozone levels were seen statewide yesterday. Since the same airmass is in place, no strong wind shift, and even more sunlight today, we expect Ozone to reach the same levels as it did yesterday and just as much widespread across the state. Tomorrow will see more clouds throughout the state, so we expect Ozone to decrease in concentration and not have as much energy needed to produce.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Sunday appears to have more clouds and larger increase in chances of rain, so that will help the overall air quality improve.

Next Forecast Update: Saturday July 1st, 2023

06/29/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday June 29th, 2023, through Friday June 30th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Another day in Michigan, another Air Quality Alert. As we continue the PM-2.5 alert we also add an Ozone Air Quality Alert for portions of southeast Michigan and west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Some models have been somewhat useful during this event for PM-2.5, while other models do not show or suggest any PM-2.5 concentrations over us, which of course, is not the case. NOAA guidance has PM-2.5 concentrations over the state of Michigan through at least Saturday, so this is why this forecast is being taken day-by-day. Winds today will be mainly southerly, which is the driving component of smoke hanging around and returning to our area. There are currently region-wide alerts due to this smoke with current PM-2.5 concentrations looking to persist for the time being as we await a true airmass change which will clean out the area. Again, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to fluctuate throughout each day, so a few hours may have improved air quality, but others may return to Unhealthy levels.

On top of the presence of smoke, Ozone will make an appearance in southeast Michigan and west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. It is suspected that the current PM-2.5 concentrations will be adding enough precursors to the environment and enabling Ozone to develop even though there is a thick plume over Michigan blocking out some of the sun. Enough of the sun’s radiation will make it to the Earth’s surface to interact with Ozone precursors. Also, as we typically see, Ozone will develop over Lake Michigan and be blown ashore as we expect SSW winds tomorrow, Friday. For most of the day tomorrow, clouds will be present but scattered and broken so the sun will be shining in areas that will be impacted by Ozone. On top of this, surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s in west and southeast Michigan aiding in the development of Ozone.

EXTENDED FORECAST: This current airmass remains in place for the time being. Air quality is expected to remain poor until we receive a good cleanout from a strong front and complete change in wind direction. As such, this forecast will be updated daily.

Next Forecast Update: Friday June 30th, 2023

06/28/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday June 28th, 2023, through Thursday June 29th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The majority of Michiganders woke up to a continued blanket of haze and wildfire smoke this Wednesday morning. We are continually being impressed by the PM-2.5 values we are seeing at the monitors across the state this morning and overnight. A dense plume of smoke came down from these fires overnight and almost all of southern Michigan is dealing with the smoke with PM-2.5 values in the Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy range. PM-2.5 values will improve slightly throughout the day today, but many areas will still be above the alert threshold of USG and possibly into the Unhealthy range still.

Winds looks to shift throughout the day from southerly to more NNW as we approach the evening as two High-pressures look to set up to our north and south. Going into tomorrow, winds will mainly be southerly which has us concerned with the amount of smoke and PM-2.5 concentrations returning to the region from being blown down south the past few days. Many models and forecast guidance have Michigan in the USG to Unhealthy range tomorrow. It is because of this the Air Quality Alert is being extended through tomorrow, Thursday. Tomorrow morning, the forecast will be reassessed but as of now, it looks like enough of the wind shift will blow smoke concentrations out of our area Thursday night into Friday. As we approach Friday, however, Ozone may become an issue once more as clear skies will allow for Ozone to develop.

EXTENDED FORECAST: High-pressure sets up to our north and south, reversing the winds to southerly and providing warmer air. Wildfire smoke may still be an issue and Ozone looks to make a return going into the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Thursday June 29th, 2023

06/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday June 27th, 2023, through Wednesday June 28th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Hazy skies blanket the state of Michigan today, Tuesday, as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to impact the region. PM-2.5 concentrations across the state are even higher than the values we saw earlier this month with our first round of PM-2.5 Air Quality Alerts. The smoke and associated PM-2.5 concentrations will persist through the day today with heavier plumes potentially mixing in this afternoon. These plumes will be coming in waves, so it is possible to see concentrations decreasing for an hour or two, then increasing; it may be a back-and-forth scenario with concentrations. We currently have numerous monitors in the Very Unhealthy range for PM-2.5, mainly on the west side of the state. Due to this, the forecast for those areas is being upgraded from USG to Unhealthy for those areas for a 24-hour PM-2.5 average. Those Very Unhealthy concentrations may drift eastward towards the metro Detroit area later this evening before decreasing overnight.

NOAA guidance and multiple models have the smoke hanging around through tomorrow, Wednesday. Once the current Low-pressure exits the area, two High-pressures, north and south of us, set up and essentially reverse the winds bringing some of the smoke back with it. The majority of the smoke looks to remain in the lower peninsula, but due to how this smoke has been behaving this year and the current fire situation, we are extending the Statewide Air Quality Alert through tomorrow, Wednesday. This forecast will be updated tomorrow morning to reassess the smoke situation and to turn our heads to Ozone, as that may be an issue later this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST: High-pressure sets up to our north and south, reversing the winds to southerly and providing warmer air. Wildfire smoke may still be an issue and Ozone looks to make an appearance later this week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Monday, June 27, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Wednesday June 28th, 2023

06/26/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 26th, 2023, through Tuesday, June 27th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range, with some hourly concentrations in the Unhealthy range

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Updated models for smoke are now showing wildfire smoke impacting the majority of the Lower Peninsula tomorrow, June 27th. Due to the spontaneous nature of these smoke plumes, we are issuing an Air Quality Alert for the entire Lower Peninsula tomorrow, June 27th, making the in-place Air Quality Alert, a Statewide Alert. This is in addition to the already in-place Air Quality Alert for the Upper Peninsula today, June 26th and tomorrow, June 27th. As of now, the majority of the smoke will stay to the west towards the Lake Michigan shoreline, but smoke should be expected to drift eastward. The main cause of this plume is the aforementioned Low-pressure moving out of the area and wrapping the smoke around with it. Southeast Michigan may receive less PM-2.5 concentrations but if there are any remaining background concentrations, the combination of the two may cause concentrations to reach the USG level.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Once the Low-pressure leaves the area, a High-pressure system sets up to our north bringing clear skies and a warmup.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Monday, June 26, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, June 27, 2023

06/24/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 24th, 2023, through Monday, June 26th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the mid-high Moderate range to USG range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: ‘Tis a busy day for Michigan air quality today, June 24th. There is currently an Air Quality Alert for Ozone for west portions of the state along the Lake Michigan shoreline. There is also an Air Quality Alert for PM-2.5 across the entire Upper Peninsula.

For Ozone, a dirty airmass will persist through the day today over Lake Michigan and will be blown ashore through a relatively strong lake breeze. Overall light winds will allow for this lake breeze to set up and persist for a couple hours. Today will also be one of the warmer days of the year with clear skies in the impacted areas, so there will be a rather conducive environment for Ozone to develop. For PM-2.5, wildfires in Ontario, Canada will impact the Upper Peninsula today and a little into the early morning hours tomorrow. The Seney monitor in the Upper Peninsula hit USG for a PM-2.5 24-hour average yesterday, and those values are expected to persist through today. Both the HRRR and RAP smoke models have a rather large plume expected to reach the Upper Peninsula this afternoon and will hang around for the remainder of the day. Some of the smoke may drift southward into the northern Lower Peninsula, but those concentrations will be short-lived and should only reach the Moderate range.

We get relief from the poor air quality tomorrow as a Low-Pressure and frontal boundary eclipse our state throughout the day. Rain is in the forecast for the majority of the state, along with shifting winds. Both the rain and changing of wind direction will help clean out the airmass and bump us back to Good air quality. These conditions last through Monday as rain hangs around into the start of next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Rain and clouds hang around the area to start next week, so overall air quality will be Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Saturday, June 24, 2023

Next Forecast Update: Monday, June 26, 2023