08/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, august 26, 2024 through Friday, August 30, 2024

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI) on Monday, but levels Tuesday could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range in parts of southwest Michigan. Reading Wednesday and the rest of the week should range between Moderate and Good (Green AQI).

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm, muggy conditions start this week with storms that will be scattered in nature on Monday. On Tuesday, precipitation will be more prevalent across the middle and central portions of the state during the morning and early afternoon hours. More sunshine is expected further south, especially in the southwest portion of the state. The sunshine, coupled with warm, muggy conditions and a southwest-to-westerly flow, will assist in the development of ozone. With the increased threat of ozone development, we have decided to issue an Air Quality Advisory from Muskegon to Grand Rapids, then south to the state border. There is a small chance a monitor may reach the USG range in the southeast as well but based on the evaluation of weather models on Monday morning, more cloud cover should help keep readings from reaching higher than the Moderate range.

There is some uncertainty about the placement of a frontal boundary moving in on Wednesday. Currently, it looks to stall over the region for a day, and more clouds and chances for precipitation by mid-week should hamper ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. If our thoughts on the expected pollution levels change, we will update this forecast. Ozone concentrations from Wednesday through Friday should range from the upper Good to the middle Moderate range.

 The current weather setup has also been keeping PM2.5 levels mostly Moderate across the state. Levels will continue to range generally Moderate until we have a good change in airmass, which likely won’t come until the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cooler conditions as we approach the coming Labor Day weekend. At this time, increased pollution levels are not anticipated.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, August 30, 2024

08/23/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 23, 2024, through monday august 26

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Good (Green AQI) through Thursday, then levels could increase towards Moderate (Yellow AQI).

PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a week full of Fall-like temperatures, we end the work week with a slight increase in temperatures as we’re at the cusp of a return to Summer-like normal temperatures. The High-pressure system that has been providing us this Pure Michigan weather will be moving off to the southeast throughout today and tomorrow. This will give way for warmer temperatures to move in as we go through this weekend due to wind direction shifting to more southerly flow. As we approach Sunday, temperatures are expected to reach into the mid-80s with Monday seeing a return to the upper 80s and even the 90s in some areas. With this heat, humidity is expected to increase as well due to winds bringing in both warmer temperatures and moisture. We kick off next week with heat indices well into the 90s with upper-90s in more southern areas. For air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations look to remain in the Moderate range due to lingering wildfire smoke from out west, which is mainly staying in the upper atmosphere. This week, a mulch fire broke out in Detroit which caused numerous mornings to have occasional USG-level PM-2.5 concentrations. Luckily, though, those concentrations only lasted for an hour or so and quickly dissipated as mornings carried on. For the beginning half of the weekend, Ozone does not look to be a threat due to unfavorable winds and slightly cooler temperature compared to how we end the weekend. As temperatures increase as we get into Sunday, Ozone concentrations can be expected to ramp up and increase throughout the day with Monday seeing a rather favorable environment for Ozone development. We will be taking a look at Monday throughout this weekend and will make changes to the forecast if concentrations warrant it.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, Summer looks to return for the beginning part of next week, with midweek and beyond cooling down after a Low-pressure and cold front roll through on Tuesday into Wednesday. Air Quality should remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, August 26, 2024

08/19/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 19, 2024, through Friday, August 23, 2024

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Good (Green AQI) through Thursday, then levels could increase towards Moderate (Yellow AQI).

PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Wildfire smoke moved into the state this past weekend; however, impacts at the surface have not resulted in hourly concentrations of PM2.5 higher than the low to middle Moderate range, and daily averages have ranged from upper Good to low Moderate. High pressure builds in over the next few days producing winds from the north to northeast. This flow will push the smoke south and west of the region, and Good PM2.5 concentrations should return to the state on Monday, continuing through midweek.

 This week, the high-pressure area dominates, bringing in cooler air from Canada. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated, but cooler surface and upper-level temperatures will hamper any ozone development. Ozone concentrations through Thursday should remain in the Good range. Southerly winds move back over the state by Friday as the high pressure tracks east of the state. This southerly flow brings in warmer air, along with the threat of increases in pollution levels. Either ozone and/or PM2.5 may increase back towards the Moderate range on Friday, but the threat of higher levels should hold off until the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a warmup towards the end of the week with dry conditions. Increases in pollution levels may be experienced during the coming weekend. Expected pollution levels during the coming weekend will be detailed in the Friday update.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, August 23, 2024

08/16/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 16, 2024, through Monday, August 19, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low pressure over northwest WI and an upper low is sending minor short waves of low pressure eastward towards Michigan.  That will keep the weekend mostly wet and cool. 

The rain should end Sunday evening as the low pressure systems migrates eastward.  Clearer weather is expected, early next week, with unseasonably cooler weather as northwest winds bring in cooler air.

 Ozone concentrations will certainly be Good during this time period.  However, we are keeping a close eye on wildfire smoke out west as the models are showing Minnesota and Wisconsin potentially receiving some surface smoke.  The models are also indicating some surface smoke may reach Michigan, later in the weekend, but concentrations only reaching the Moderate range. While I do not anticipate anything worse than Moderate, we will keep a close eye on the situation and update this forecast should anything change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate going into the upcoming work week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, August 19, 2024

08/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 12, 2024, through Fri, August 16, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

If you did not get out and enjoy the weather during the past weekend, you missed a golden opportunity.  The good news is that the same weather pattern will persist for the next few days.

 Monday skies will remain partly sunny, and it will be a little milder with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.  While the forecast is showing the slight possibility for some pop-up type of showers, during Monday afternoon, the dry conditions make that a remote possibility.  Similar conditions look to persist through Wednesday and into Thursday with a gradual increase in temperature into the mid-80’s.  Air Quality should remain mostly Good during this period with the possibility of Low Moderate in Southeast Michigan during Wednesday.

 There is increasing confidence for a widespread and substantial rainfall event occurring on Thursday night and Friday.  Models are indicating amounts ranging for 0.5” to 2.0” of potential rain through the area.  Low pressure looks to persist through the weekend with clouds, scattered showers, and daytime high temperatures in the upper 70’s.  Air Quality should remain mostly Good during this period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into next week.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, August 16, 2024

08/09/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 9, 2024, through MonDAY, August 12, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

It is a rare thing, in Michigan, to look at the long-range forecast and see mostly clear skies throughout the forecast.  Add cool, pleasant temperatures and low humidity and the next few days will be ideal.  The only hitch will be breezy conditions following a Friday cold front.  This will bring about sustained westerly winds ranging between 10-15 mph and gusts reaching up between 20 and 25 mph throughout the weekend. 

As the colder winds sweep across Lake Michigan, however, there is a chance of lake induced instability which could throw up a few clouds and random, isolated showers.  These isolated showers would likely be limited to late Saturday and occur closest to the Lake.

Air Quality will be Good throughout the weekend and into the upcoming work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into next week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, August 12, 2024

08/05/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 5, 2024, through Friday, August 9, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (AQI Yellow), early in the week, transitioning to Good (AQI Green) for the latter half of the week

Monday and Tuesday look to be the most active weather for the week, followed by cooler, drier weather for the remain of the week and weekend.  As of Monday morning, a cold front is draped across the southern portion of the state and will gradually drop south during the day.  A moisture rich atmosphere will provide the opportunity for locally heavy rainfall amounts along the frontal boundary during Monday.

 More widespread rainfall is likely for late tonight into Tuesday as the front stalls below the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border.   A wave of low pressure is projected to ride along the boundary and into the Michigan area early Tuesday morning.  Severe weather looks unlikely, but we could see rainfall amounts in the 1”-3” range before it exits the region late Tuesday.

 Any threat of elevated ozone is non-existent during this period.  PM-2.5 values have been hovering in the Moderate range thanks to a small amount of elevated wildfire smoke mixing down from above but will gradually clear out.

 Surface high pressure will dominate our weather for most of the time Tuesday night through Sunday.  This will provide cooler temperatures and drier humidity along with clear skies.  Daytime high temperatures will struggle to get past the 80-degree mark and nights will be comfortably cool with temperatures in the upper 50’s.  Air Quality is expected to be Good for that portion of the forecast period and into the weekend.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday August 9th 2024

08/02/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 2nd, through Monday August 5th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range.

We end the work week with humidity sticking around through the weekend with pop up showers possible this Friday afternoon. Some of us Michiganders woke up with showers this morning as showers linger by tapping into ample moisture in the region. As we go into Saturday, the heat sticks around, but winds shift to more northerly flow, so this may provide some relief from high humidity. Sunday continues this heating trend with winds shifting back to more WSW flow, so dew points and associated humidity are expected to increase. We will be in between two pressure systems this weekend, so ample sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday.

For air quality, although we will have ample sunlight and heat to produce Ozone, development of Ozone exceeding the USG level is not expected due to unfavorable northerly winds for Ozone development. Also, throughout this weekend, dew points will remain rather high and there are numerous instances where Ozone does not produce well with high dew points. Another factor inhibiting Ozone could potentially be upper-level smoke from wildfires out west. This smoke is expected to remain in the upper atmosphere and not make its way down to the surface. For this reason, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight cool down is expected next week with a decrease in humidity as well. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 5th 2024

07/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 29th 2024, through Friday August 2nd, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

The previous, picturesque Michigan summer weekend bleeds into the next work week, this Monday morning, in most areas across the state. Southwest portions of the state saw intermittent rain showers Sunday evening that are hanging around the area as we wake up this Monday morning. Accompanying this rain is warmer, and more moist air as dew point temperatures are expected to climb into the upper-60s throughout this week. Heat, humidity, and pop-up showers to thunderstorms will be the headline this week with all of the aforementioned factors intermingling with one another. To help out with the proper forcing in the atmosphere to initiate showers or thunderstorms, a Low-pressure system looks to traverse the southern portions of the state early Tuesday morning, which will kick up some rain showers in the morning. A rather weak High-pressure system hangs over us on Wednesday, but the heat and humidity hanging around may still lead to some pop-up showers around the state. In the latter half of the week, another Low-pressure system with an accompanied warm front crosses over the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, which will lead to more pop-up showers and storms.

In terms of air quality, although we will have the heat and humidity to produce Ozone, I do not think the clouds and wind direction will cooperate with Ozone development. The multiple rounds of pop-up showers will help to locally clean out airmasses as well. Along with the multiple rounds of pop-up showers, the pressure systems moving through the state this week will shift winds from southerly to northerly almost every other day. This shift in winds will help to bring in cleaner air from the north for Ozone purposes.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

This weekend continues where the work week leaves off with surface temperatures in the 80s and relatively high humidity. Air quality looks to remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday August 2nd

07/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 26, 2024, through Monday, July 29, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure continues to press into the Great Lakes region to begin this weekend period.  EGLE is expecting mostly clear skies today and Saturday with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s and comfortable dew points in the high 50-degree range.  Air Quality should be mostly in the Good category.

 The models are indicating a warmup and higher humidity beginning Sunday and into Monday.  Increasing atmospheric instability could yield a period of showers starting on Monday.  Air Quality will range from Good to Moderate.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into the upcoming work week

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 29, 2024

07/22/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 22, 2024, through Friday, July 26, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first half of the week looks a bit unsettled, in the weather department, but will transition into some great weather for the second half of the work week and the weekend.

 A weak shortwave lifts into the southern Great Lakes area, during Monday, that will touch off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially areas where lake breeze boundaries form.  Atmospheric instability is only modest, so I am not expected any severe outbreaks.  Any storms that develop Monday afternoon will dissipate toward the evening leading to a partly cloudy night.  Showers and storms will be in play, again, on Tuesday as low pressure, combined with an upper trough moves eastward across northern Michigan.  Air Quality is expected to range from Good to Moderate during this time.

Wednesday will see a cold front drive through Michigan during the day.  Enough ingredients will be in place for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with rainfall potentials up to 1.5 inches.  Air Quality will be mostly Good during Wednesday.

Once we get past Wednesday, conditions improve significantly as high pressure quickly builds into the Great Lakes region.  Cooler air will push in but will only drop Thursday’s daytime high temperatures down to the mid/upper 70s to 80 degrees.  Surface high pressure will maintain dryer conditions Friday and Saturday as daytime high temperatures climb back into the 80s with comfortable dew points.  Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good.

 We are tracking a large area of wildfire smoke over the Plaines states.  Fortunately, all models are keeping surface smoke away from Michigan although some elevated smoke could provide more colorful sunrises and sunsets.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 26, 2024

07/19/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 19, 2024, through Monday, July 22, 2024

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will also average between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A pleasant summer weekend is in store for Michigan, with comfortable day and nighttime temperatures and generally dry conditions. High pressure is dominating at the surface Friday, and plenty of sunshine is expected. Clouds may increase some with small chances of precipitation on Saturday in the upper peninsula, moving to northern lower locations on Sunday as a weak boundary sinks in from the Lake Superior region. However, this is not a huge precipitation event, and most locations will remain dry. Weak high pressure moves in by Monday, keeping the trend of generally dry and comfortable temperatures going.

 As for air quality, while plenty of sunshine is expected, along with light surface winds, the upper-level flow remains cool with a northwesterly wind direction through the weekend. This set-up will hamper significant ozone development, and levels this weekend are expected to range from Good to Moderate.

 Wildfire smoke models are showing a light plume of smoke sinking into the upper peninsula area on Saturday and the northern lower area on Sunday as the weak boundary drops in. This may allow for increases of PM2.5 into the Moderate range this weekend in a weather setup that would typically bring the state low readings. Further south, where wildfire smoke influence is not expected, lighter winds will allow for hourly increases into the Moderate range, but any increases should improve by late morning, allowing for a daily average between the Good and low-Moderate ranges.

 During the weekend, we will keep an eye on pollution levels, and if readings of either ozone or PM2.5 higher than Moderate become possible, this forecast will be updated to reflect the change.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show the next decent chance for showers and storms arriving around mid-week. Pollution levels by early next week should range between Good and Moderate.

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 22, 2024

07/15/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 15, 2024, through Friday, July 19, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good (Green AQI) with a few Moderates (Yellow AQI) Monday and Tuesday. Readings then turn generally Good until late in the week when Moderate levels may return.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A round of storms moved through the southern portion of the state early Monday morning, and more rounds of storms, some of which could be strong, are expected later Monday and Tuesday before a cold front drops in from the north. Ahead of the front, warm and muggy conditions will continue, as will periods of storms. The cold front passes during the day Tuesday; however, it takes until Wednesday into Thursday before dryer, cooler conditions move in. Cooler day and nighttime temperatures, along with plenty of sunshine, can then be expected for the rest of the forecast period.

 As for air quality, the best chance for any ozone development will be today (Monday) along the west Michigan lakeshore and in the southeast. Max 8-hour concentrations will likely get into the upper Moderate range, with a small chance a monitor may reach close to or just into the USG (Orange AQI) category. Clouds and precipitation chances Tuesday through Wednesday are followed up with cooler, dryer conditions for the end of the week. Ozone levels past mid-week should remain mostly Good.

 As of late Monday morning, hourly concentrations of PM2.5 were increasing at the western and eastern monitors in the Upper Peninsula. The increases in PM2.5 are due to wildfires to our northwest in Canada and associated plumes of smoke that are moving into the Lake Superior region. The most recent smoke models show these plumes dropping into the Upper Peninsula today, and the plumes are expected to track south along the front as it sinks through the state on Tuesday. At this time, the smoke does not appear to significantly influence ground-level PM2.5 levels, but daily PM2.5 levels in the middle or upper Moderate ranges are possible, especially further north. While not as likely, hourly concentrations of PM2.5 in the USG range are a possibility as well. This is something we are keeping an eye on, and this forecast will be updated if our thoughts on the current track and trend of the wildfire plume and associated PM2.5 levels change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Dry conditions are expected to continue into the coming weekend. During this period, air quality conditions are not expected to be higher than the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 19, 2024

07/14/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 13th, 2024 Through sunday july 14th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to USG (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

There is currently an Air Quality Advisory in place for the counties listed above in west Michigan. After Sunday morning storms move off to the east, skies will open up, winds will shift to the southwest, and surface temperatures will increase into the upper 80s—prime conditions for Ozone development. Multiple rounds of rain and possible storms tomorrow, Monday, will help keep Ozone development at bay due to consistent cloud cover and rain that will clean out the airmass.

Numerous wildfire smoke models show an increase in Canadian wildfire smoke, PM-2.5, approaching the northern portions of the state, more specifically, the western upper peninsula tomorrow, Monday. Hourly PM-2.5 concentrations may exceed the USG threshold, but the 24-hour average for PM-2.5 is expected to remain below USG in the Moderate range. The wildfire smoke is expected to hang around the upper peninsula through the beginning of parts of next week, but only in the Moderate range in terms of concentrations

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Heat and humidity continue into tomorrow, Monday, with a front and associated cool down coming midweek.

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 15, 2024

07/13/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 13th, 2024 Through sunday july 14th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to USG (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

There is currently an Air Quality Advisory in place for southeast Michigan today for USG level Ozone concentrations expected. As we move into tomorrow, there is a chance of storms in the morning hours, but skies clear out for the west side of the state in the early afternoon. This will allow for Ozone to develop beyond the USG range by tapping into the ample sunlight, surface temperatures well into the 80s, and favorable southwest winds. Clouds look to hang around the southeast Michigan region well into the afternoon, so high-Moderate concentrations can be expected. Because of these conditions in West Michigan, I am issuing an Air Quality Advisory tomorrow for lakeshore counties from the Michigan/Indiana border up to Muskegon County.

I will be updating this forecast tomorrow, Sunday, due to similar conditions on Monday in West Michigan.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Hot and humid conditions look to persist to start off the next work week. Air quality can be expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.

Next Forecast update: Sunday, July 14, 2024

07/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 12th, 2024, through Saturday, July 13th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range across the state with the exception of southeast Michigan where USG (Orange AQI) concentrations are expected.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders wake up this morning to a mixed bag of weather with many under clear skies and a bright sun, whereas others are dealing with pop up showers due to the heat and lingering humidity. These pop-up storms should be expected throughout today and tomorrow as the aforementioned heat and humidity provide fuel for the atmosphere to kick up showers and storms. The majority of Michigan, however, should experience clear skies and warm temperatures throughout this weekend as a High-pressure system sits over us tomorrow, Saturday. Surface temperatures are expected to range in the 80s near the surface with upper-level temperatures in the mid-teens Celsius. Winds, both surface and upper level, are showing southwesterly flow over the state with a possibility of stagnation in the metro Detroit area. The combination of clear skies, warm temperatures throughout the atmosphere and light winds, USG level Ozone concentrations are expected for southeast Michigan, therefore, an Air Quality Advisory has been issued for tomorrow, Saturday for these areas.

West Michigan will be under similar conditions but with stronger winds speeds and winds over Lake Michigan are expected to stay southerly. So Ozone that produces over the lake via transport will stay over the lake, unless a lake breeze sets up and brings some concentrations inland. Hourly concentrations in the USG range can be expected in the Lake Michigan shoreline communities, but overall 8-hour averages should remain in the high-Moderate range.

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to remain in the Moderate range, as lingering wildfire smoke stays out to our west over Minnesota.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The next line of storms across Michigan is looking to occur Sunday, which may help clean out our airmass.

Next Forecast update: Saturday, July 13, 2024

07/11/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday July 11th, 2024, through Friday July 12th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After the remnants of Hurricane Beryl dropped numerous inches of rain across the entire state, we look to dry out today, Thursday, and into tomorrow. A high-pressure system slides into the region throughout today and into the weekend which will provide quite a bit of sunshine for the Great Lakes throughout the weekend. Surface temperatures start to rebound today with humid air sticking around due to Beryl bringing in ample atmospheric moisture. The combination of warmer temperatures and high humidity will cause heat indexes to return to the 90s later this weekend and into next week. Upper-level temperatures remain somewhat cooler but see an increase as we approach the weekend.

For air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to hang around the Moderate range with Canadian wildfire smoke off to the west over Minnesota and northern parts of Wisconsin. The smoke to the west does not seem to be dense, nor is it expected to approach Michigan. If anything, the western upper peninsula may see a slight increase in PM-2.5 near the surface. For Ozone, today and tomorrow look to be “ramp up” days for Ozone development as both surface and upper-level temperatures increase. The High-pressure will provide ample sunlight for Ozone to develop, along with shifting winds from southeasterly to southwesterly. Both of these directions can be troublesome for metro Detroit and the Lake Michigan shoreline, respectively. Due to High-pressure moving in and winds shifting, I will be updating this forecast tomorrow, Friday, and more than likely on Saturday as well. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

High-pressure moves in with a temperature increase and humidity.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 12th, 2024

07/08/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 8th, 2024, through Thursday July 11th, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start off the second week of July with a wide range of weather occurring in the state with a line of storms traversing central Michigan currently, this Monday morning. Much of the upper peninsula and southern lower peninsula, however, are under partly cloudy skies with the sun peeking through in some areas. Rain chances with a potential storm are possible this afternoon and evening across the Great Lakes with rain chances increasing as we approach midweek. A weakening front is expected to cross over the state tomorrow, Tuesday, with spotty rain showers. However, the more consistent chance of rain, at least for southern Michigan, will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday due to the remnants of Hurricane Beryl moving into the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain, with a couple of inches possible, is expected to hang around for much of Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Luckily, though, once the low-pressure associated with the withering Hurricane exits the region later on Wednesday, a High-pressure system moves in late Thursday and into Friday.

For air quality, late last week’s air quality became very interesting for PM-2.5 concentrations with firework smoke hanging around southeast Michigan due to a very stagnant airmass. The air was near stagnant from near the surface to about 3,000 feet into the atmosphere, so that explains why PM-2.5 concentrations increased to values that haven’t been seen since last year’s wildfire smoke episodes. Once the air started moving, thanks to temperature increases, the concentrations quickly decreased. For this week, however, air quality looks to remain in the Moderate range for both Ozone and PM-2.5. Ozone may see some high-Moderate concentrations today along the Lake Michigan shoreline and in metro Detroit, but evening rain and clouds will help keep those concentrations at bay. PM-2.5 may see mid-high Moderates in the western upper peninsula today and tomorrow due to wildfire smoke coming down from Canada. Although, the time the smoke reaches the upper peninsula, it will already be rather diluted due to dispersion. As mentioned above, midweek sees quite a bit of rain for much of Michigan which will clean out the airmass, providing Good air quality. Once the High-pressure moves in late Thursday, Ozone may increase into the high-Moderate range on Friday and into Saturday, therefore, I will update the forecast on Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

High-pressure and temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected to later this week and into the weekend which may be interesting for Ozone development.

Next Forecast update: Thursday July 11th, 2024

07/05/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 5, 2024, through Monday, July 8, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain generally Moderate (AQI Yellow).

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 While we normally see elevated levels of PM-2.5 during the 4th of July holiday, these concentrations are far above typical.  The culprit is dead calm winds, even up to nearly 3,000 meters above the ground.  As a result, the smoke from the Thursday evening firework shows is just sitting and not dispersing.  At the time of this forecast (noon, Friday), concentrations have been dropping since early morning and should continue to drop as winds pick up during the afternoon.

 Even though concentrations are dropping, we will increase the forecast level to USG in Southeast Michigan for the remainder of the day.

 Since fireworks will likely continue through the weekend, it is important to check the wind forecasts.  Surface winds, during Saturday, are projected to reach 15 mph and upper air winds will also be more defined.  As such, I am not expecting to see a repeat of Friday’s early morning concentrations, although I will be keeping a close eye on the situation.

 Winds look to be more diminished on Sunday and I am hoping most of the professional firework shows will be done.  Since personal fireworks will likely continue, I will keep the forecast in the Moderate range for most of the state through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Moderate during the beginning of the upcoming work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 8, 2024

07/01/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 1, 2024, through Friday, July 5, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) with some occasional Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow).

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

July starts out with cool temperatures and low dew points as the center of surface high pressure moves over Michigan during the today.  Temperature and humidity will increase as we move to mid-week but will stay in the seasonable (or slightly below) range. 

 As high pressure moves east of the region, southerly low-level winds bringing warmer air on Tuesday.  There is a chance of rain showers during the day, particularly north of Grand Rapids with a slight chance thunderstorm during the day.  Rain showers become more likely Tuesday night on the west side of the state.

 A weak cold front is likely to move over the state during Wednesday but die out as it progresses.  Above average warm temperatures with higher humidity expected for the 4th of July holiday and into Friday.  Another round of storms could impact the region during Friday as atmospheric instability looks to increase.

 Air Quality during the week should remain mostly Good but we could see some hit or miss Moderates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Moderate during the beginning of the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 5, 2024