07/01/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 1st through Tuesday, July 5th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to generally range from Good to Moderate through the holiday weekend; isolated USG is possible Sunday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will primarily range from upper Good to middle Moderate, however, expect elevated hourly readings of USG or possibly higher during the late evening/early overnight hours in locations with fireworks displays.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary Friday continues traveling southeast through the state with chances for precipitation across the southeast as it moves through. Conditions dry out Saturday and Sunday as high pressure dominates the region. Another boundary moves in on July 4th bringing possible precipitation later in the day.

As for air quality, winds switching to the northwest after the fontal passage Friday will help keep ozone generally Good, however, the later frontal passage in the southeast may allow for Moderate ozone there. High pressure to our west Saturday produces north/northwesterly winds. This flow will help keep pollution levels from increasing. A few locations may experience Moderate ozone, but that should not be widespread. By Sunday, high pressure settles more overhead and light winds become southerly later in the day. Seasonable temperatures will be in place, but upper-level temperatures do not increase significantly. There is a chance an isolated monitor or two could reach low-end USG, but we expect most locations to be Moderate. By July 4th, a frontal boundary is sinking in from the northwest. Increasing clouds and chances for precipitation later in the day should keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate.

Now for fine particulate, with it being the July 4th weekend we do expect the usual spikes in fine particulate with hourly readings well into the USG range during the late evening/early overnight hours in locations with fireworks displays. The days for the increases will vary depending on when areas have fireworks scheduled. Without a prolonged period of stagnation forecast through Monday, high hourlies should improve bringing daily averages of fine particulate closer to the Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a front passing by late Monday/early Tuesday. This should keep pollution levels from increasing higher than Good to low-Moderate as we move towards mid-week.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Friday, July 1, 2022
Next Forecast update: Tuesday, July 5, 2022

06/29/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, June 29th, 2022, through Friday, July 1st, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate Wednesday and Thursday except for possible USG levels Thursday in West Michigan. Friday should have readings ranging from Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak front brought precipitation early Wednesday across parts of the state. This boundary sinks south into northern Indiana and Ohio before lifting back north as a warm front early Thursday. Precipitation ends and clouds dissipate as Wednesday progresses and as the front lifts back north on Thursday, we can expect warm temperatures and increased humidity to return. Precipitation chances do make its way back into the forecast late Thursday into Friday as a cold front travels from northwest to southeast through the state.

As for air quality, light winds with a northerly to westerly component should hamper ozone development Wednesday with readings ranging from Good to Moderate. On Thursday, warm south/southwesterly winds at both the surface and upper levels develop. This coupled with amble sunshine and dew points in the low 60s makes a good set up for ozone, especially in west Michigan. Because of this, we have an Action Day in place Thursday for the counties we feel have the highest threat for USG levels of ozone. While there is a small chance a monitor may reach USG in the southeast, the stronger southwest winds in that portion of the state should hamper ozone from increasing significantly; therefore, we will forecast Moderate for that portion of the state.

Clouds will be more prevalent Friday and chances for precipitation develop as a cold front sinks in from the northwest. Southern portions of the state that experience more sunshine due to the later frontal passage may reach middle to upper Moderate for ozone, otherwise, reading should be Good to low Moderate. Without a prolonged stagnation setup expected the next few days, PM2.5 during the period should range from middle Good to low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

After a cold front passes Friday, extended forecast models show primarily dry conditions for the coming weekend. What is uncertain at this point is a system that may bring rain by the July 4th holiday. With the uncertainty in the forecast, we will do a Friday update to get a better handle on weather conditions, and in turn air quality conditions, for the weekend into the July 4th holiday.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, June 29, 2022
Next Forecast update: Friday, July 1st, 2022

06/27/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 27th, 2022, through Wednesday, June 29th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from mostly Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool high pressure dominates Monday allowing for Good pollution levels across the state. As the high settles further east Tuesday, southwesterly winds develop and surface temperatures warm; however, cooler upper-level readings will keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. A weak frontal boundary drops over the state Wednesday which seems to dissipate over the area. Not much precipitation will be associated with the front but clouds earlier in the day and northwesterly winds later in the day should keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. Fine particulate Wednesday will range between upper Good and low Moderate.

The next chance for increased ozone comes into play Thursday. By then, high pressure will be east of the region and both surface and upper level flow turns southwesterly. Along with that, temperatures and dew points reach levels more common for ozone development. Clouds may be moving in from the north during the day, but with it being a few days out, we feel another look is warranted. We will be doing a forecast update Wednesday morning to better detail expected pollution levels for Thursday and into the coming July 4th weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

After a cold front passes Friday, extended forecast models show primarily dry conditions for the coming weekend. While at this time a weather setup conducive for ozone development does not seem probable, along with the Wednesday update, another forecast update will likely be done Friday to detail conditions through the coming holiday.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, June 27, 2022
Next Forecast update: Wednesday, June 29th, 2022

06/24/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 24th, 2022, through Monday, June 27th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Moderate, statewide, on Friday.  Saturday will be mostly Moderate on the West Side of the state. A clean-out occurs on Sunday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Pleasant summer weather continues into Friday as we start the day with a clean air mass. We will see a slow creep in ozone concentrations, during the day, as high pressure slips to the east and winds swing around to the south. We anticipate that the shifting winds will keep the worst of the forming ozone plume over Lake Michigan pushed to the west side of the lake. Wisconsin, Illinois and Northwest Indiana have responded by calling Action Days in their states.

Michigan should be spared from the higher concentrations along the lakeshore as the shifting winds keep most of the higher elevations away from our lakeshore. Low dew points will also help slow ozone formation. There is a slight possibility that an isolated pocket of higher ozone could reach an isolated monitor with the lake breeze, but that possibility is fairly remote.

The dynamics change Saturday. An advancing cold front should provide enough cloud cover to keep West Michigan ozone in check. 

The advancing cold front should pass through the rest of the state, during Sunday, cleaning out any remaining dirty air. Cooler, cleaner air will flow into the region for the beginning of the next work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Friday, June 24, 2022
Next Forecast update: Monday, June 27, 2022

06/23/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, June 23rd, 2022, through Friday, June 24th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good on Thursday transitioning to Moderate on Friday. There is a slight chance of an isolated USG along the lakeshore, during Friday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Thursday looks to be an ideal summer day with sunny skies, lower temperatures, and low humidity.  Air Quality is currently very clean across the state.

We will be under the same air mass as we start the day Friday morning.  As the high-pressure drifts eastward, winds will return to a southwesterly direction.  The surface winds will be the first to switch back to the southwest in the morning followed by the upper air winds early in the afternoon. 

During this wind shift, the models are being pretty consistent moving the ozone plume over the lake more towards the Wisconsin side and they have responded by issuing an Action Day for Friday.  Chances appear to be low for our lakeshore to be adversely affected on Friday.  This can be attributed to starting with a clean base, low dewpoints, and winds not becoming problematic until later in the day.

That said, we are still under the strongest solar radiation period of the year with the longest hours of daylight.  Winds will be light, meaning we will have an afternoon lake breeze along the shore.  As such, there is the possibility that an isolated monitor could see some elevated ozone although that possibility is slight for Friday. 

The forecast will be updated on Friday morning.   Once we get past Saturday, a cold front will clean the air and start the new week with cooler, dryer conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Thursday, June 23, 2022
Next Forecast update: Friday, June 24, 2022

06/21/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, June 21st, 2022, through Thursday, June 23rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be USG to Unhealthy on Tuesday in West Michigan with SE Michigan staying mostly in the High Moderate range. Wednesday and Thursday should be a mix of Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 21ST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN…BERRIEN…CASS… KENT… MASON…MUSKEGON…OCEANA…OTTAWA… VAN BUREN COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The West Michigan Action Day forecast for Monday was spot-on.  All of the West Michigan monitors exceeded the 8-hour average 70 ppb threshold for USG with six of those monitors reaching the Unhealthy category.  Unfortunately, this episode will almost certainly continue through Tuesday as the Action Day remains in effect. 

Fine Particulates have remained in check, during this episode, and should continue to do so during the Tuesday Action Day.

This episode will end after a cold front sweeps through the state, Wednesday morning.  While we will see a clean-out in terms of Air Quality, temperatures will still be running on the hotter side with daily highs in the upper 80’s.

Winds look to swing back to the southwest during Friday.  With the long periods of daylight and strong solar radiation, this could pose a concern for Air Quality.  As a result, the forecast will be updated on Thursday morning.  Hopefully, this would only be one day of concern as Saturday looks to be mostly cloudy and another cold front sweeps through on Sunday with cooler weather to follow.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warm temperatures and sunny skies look to stick around for the next couple of days. Air quality will be monitored throughout the week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
Next Forecast update: Thursday, June 23, 2022

06/20/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 20th, 2022, through Tuesday, June 21st, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range with USG-levels in West Michigan.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

…AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR MONDAY, JUNE 20TH AND TUESDAY, JUNE 21ST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN…BERRIEN…CASS… KENT… MASON…MUSKEGON…OCEANA…OTTAWA… VAN BUREN COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Along with an increase in surface temperatures, winds shift to southwesterly flow Monday morning and stay that way through Tuesday. These winds, along with a warm front, will bring warmer temperatures Tuesday with highs reaching the mid-90s F.

In terms of air quality, West Michigan counties are expected to reach USG-level Ozone concentrations for Monday and Tuesday. Surface winds coming from the southwest, mostly clear skies, surface temperatures in the upper-80s F to mid-90s F, and upper-level temperatures hovering around the low-20s C are all reasons behind the forecasted Ozone development.

Monday update: As of Monday, June 20th, the forecast looks to remain the same from Sunday morning. West Michigan is expected to receive USG-level Ozone concentrations as high surface temperatures return along with relatively clear skies and southwest winds. There was uncertainty Sunday morning about how southeast Michigan would fare with Ozone on Tuesday. As the day progresses on Tuesday, winds look to shift to more westerly flow which should help hinder high Ozone concentrations to form in that area.

PM-2.5 concentrations look to remain in the Good to Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warm temperatures and sunny skies look to stick around for the next couple of days. Air quality will be monitored throughout the week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday, June 20th, 2022.
Next Forecast update: Tuesday, June 21st, 2022.

06/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday June 19th, 2022, through Monday June 20th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Moderate to USG.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate.

…AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR MONDAY JUNE 20TH AND TUESDAY JUNE 21ST FOR THE FOLLOWIG COUNTIES…

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN…BERRIEN…CASS… KENT… MASON…MUSKEGON…OCEANA…OTTAWA… VAN BUREN COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

USG-level Ozone is expected in the counties listed above, so this warrants an Air Quality Action Day for much of West Michigan for Monday and Tuesday this week.

Today, Sunday, continues the trend we’ve seen the past few days of ample sunshine and light winds. Surface temperatures will range from the mid-70s F to the low-80s F throughout the region. Surface temperatures increase as we go through tomorrow morning with high surface temperatures ranging from the upper-70s F to mid-80s F. Along with an increase in surface temperatures, winds shift to southwesterly flow tomorrow morning and stays that way through Tuesday. These winds, along with a warm front, will bring warmer temperatures Tuesday with highs reaching the mid-90s F.

In terms of air quality, as stated above, West Michigan counites are expected to reach USG-level Ozone concentrations for Monday and Tuesday. Surface winds coming from the southwest, mostly clear skies, surface temperatures in the upper-80s F to mid-90s F, and upper-level temperatures hovering around the low-20s C are all reasons behind the forecasted Ozone development. I will be looking over the forecast tomorrow for southeast Michigan for Tuesday as tomorrow will have possible rain and intermittent cloudiness to curb Ozone in southeast Michigan. Tuesday for southeast Michigan looks to clear out, so I will be looking to see if Ozone will develop, if so, then this current Action Day will extend to southeast Michigan for Tuesday.

PM-2.5 looks to remain in the Good to Moderate category through Tuesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We will be looking over models and the forecast tomorrow to see if any changes are needed for Tuesday.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Sunday June 19th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Monday June 20th, 2022

06/15/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday June 15th, 2022, through Friday June 17th, 2022

OZONE:  Ozone concentrations are expected to reach USG-level today but will be Good to Moderate for the remainder of the week.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate throughout this week.

…AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 15TH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN…BERRIEN…CASS… KENT… MASON…MUSKEGON…OCEANA…OTTAWA… VAN BUREN COUNTIES

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today, Wednesday, is an Air Quality Action Day for the counties listed above for USG-level Ozone. High surface and upper-level temperatures, SW winds, and ample sunlight are expected to create a conducive environment for Ozone development. There is some relief to our west as a cold front and associated storm system approaches the Great Lakes region. The cold front is expected to pass through overnight into tomorrow morning bringing potential storms across the western and central Upper Peninsula later this afternoon into the evening. This will help to clean out the airmass as Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range for the remainder of the week.

Winds also shift to more westerly tomorrow for the Lower Peninsula and remain southwesterly for the Upper Peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 80s F tomorrow for much of Michigan, but as stated above, should not create a conducive environment for rapid Ozone development. Throughout the day on Friday, winds slowly shift to northwesterly with temperatures ranging from the upper-60s F to mid-70s F.

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to remain in the Good to Moderate range. There appears to be a smoke plume over the Great Lakes region today and into tomorrow. However, this quickly exits the area come Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

This weekend looks to be pleasant thanks to a High-pressure system drifting in from the north. This forecast will be updated on Friday as there appears to be another warmup early next week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Wednesday June 15th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Friday June 17th, 2022

06/14/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary: Tuesday June 14th, 2022, through Wednesday June 15th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to reach USG levels for 8-hour averages.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate throughout this week.

AIR QUALITY ACTION , CLEAN AIR ACTION! DAY ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 15TH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…

IN WEST MICHIGAN: ALLEGAN…BERRIEN…CASS…KENT…MASON…MUSKEGON…OCEANA…OTTAWA…VAN BUREN COUNTIES

IN Southeast MICHIGAN: LENAWEE…MACOMB…MONROE…OAKLAND…ST. CLAIR…WASHTENAW…WAYNE COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today, Tuesday, looks to be warm but will have intermittent cloudiness throughout the day. Also, the wind direction looks to remain more southerly with a slight easterly component to it. Expect Moderate Ozone concentrations for the southern portions of the state with the possibility of isolated hourly USG levels. Overall, 8-hour averages for Ozone should remain in the Moderate range, however. 

Following some cloudiness on Tuesday, ample sunshine will ramp up Ozone development for southern portions of the state throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. The forecast for Wednesday has remained consistent with sunny skies, surface temperatures in the upper 90s F, warm upper-level temperatures, and both surface and upper-level southwest winds. These conditions warrant an Air Quality Action Day Advisory for the areas listed above for USG level Ozone concentrations. Thursday presents a slight cool down with a cold front making its way through the region early Thursday morning, which should help to clean out the airmass and lower Ozone concentrations. This forecast is made out until tomorrow in case conditions change and the current forecast needs to be reassessed.

PM-2.5 concentrations look to remain in the Good to Low-Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Models are still showing a cool down this weekend, but as stated above, I will be updating the forecast tomorrow, Wednesday.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Tuesday June 14th, 2022 Next Forecast update: Wednesday June 15th, 2022.

06/13/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary: Monday June 13th, 2022, through Tuesday June 14th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Moderate to USG.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate throughout this week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Summer-like and above-normal temperatures return this week as we start off with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s F and quickly reach the mid-to-upper 90s F come midweek. Ample sunlight and southwest winds will also accompany the warm temperatures as we go through the week. The only exception is the possibility of severe storms Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the weather quickly rebounds with partly sunny skies and warm temperatures Tuesday. There is a slight cool down as we approach Thursday afternoon as a cold front makes its way through the Great Lakes region.   

Ozone is expected to range from Moderate to USG Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Tuesday Ozone development may be delayed due to potential storms early Tuesday morning. Due to this delay, isolated monitors may reach USG on the hourly-level, but widespread 8-hour average is not expected to reach USG. As stated above, warm temperatures both surface and upper-level, southwest winds, and ample sunlight will create a conducive environment for Ozone development in West Michigan and Southeast Michigan midweek. Wednesday looks to be the day to have the highest potential for 8-hour average Ozone to reach USG, which is why I will be updating the forecast tomorrow, Tuesday.

PM-2.5 forecasts look to range from Good to low-Moderate for the week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models look to agree with a slight cool down later this week into the weekend.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday June 13th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday June 14th, 2022

06/10/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Friday, June 10th, 2022, through Monday, June 13th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A couple systems moving through keep afternoon showers/storms in the forecast both Friday and Saturday. Both days will see partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 70s. A boundary passing the state late Saturday into Sunday bring greater chances for precipitation, but conditions should dry out Sunday with clouds decreasing as the day progresses. High pressure slides in from the north Monday with generally sunny skies and temperatures warming closer to the 80s.

As for air quality, some cloud cover coupled with cooler upper-level temperatures on a northwest wind will hamper pollution development Friday and Saturday. Considering the warmer sun this time of year, hourly ozone may reach high enough in areas that see more sunshine for 8-hour levels to reach low-Moderate, however, we expect most locations will remain Good. The best chance for Moderate ozone would be in the southern portion of the state.

The air quality forecast remains the same for Sunday regarding a few Moderate ozone readings possible, mostly in the western portion of the state where clouds exit earlier in the day. By Monday, temperatures increase both at the surface and upper levels; however, winds look to have more of an easterly/southeasterly component which generally is not conducive for ozone development. Also, we should be coming off a generally low background of ozone. I do anticipate Moderate ozone to be more prevalent Monday, but readings higher than Moderate are not expected.

With the anticipated weather conditions, fine particulate should range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a warmup is still on track Tuesday into Wednesday. The question is possible storm development during that timeframe. On Monday the weather maps will be looked at and the forecast update will detail air quality conditions for next week.

Next forecast update: Monday, June 13th, 2022

06/06/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, June 6th, 2022, through Friday, June 10th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be generally Good through the week; Moderates may return early next week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and low-mid Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

On and off systems this week will keep chances for precipitation in the forecast. There could be a break Thursday with high pressure moving in, however, a system to the south brings a return to rain chances for the end of the work week. Temperatures will be ranging a bit cooler, especially at upper levels. Because of this, ozone is not much of a concern and readings should be mostly Good with only a few low-Moderates through Friday. Fine particulate through the period will range from middle Good to low Moderate.

High pressure moves in late in the week and there is a hint at a warmup early next week. If this forecast pans out, more widespread Moderate ozone may return next Monday and/or Tuesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer conditions moving in for the long-range period. This forecast will be updated Friday to detail expected air quality for the weekend into early next week.

Next forecast update: Friday, June 10th, 2022

5/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday May 31st, 2022, through Monday June 6th, 2022

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good to Moderate on Tuesday, then mostly Good during the remainder of the work week followed by Good and scattered Low Moderates during the weekend.

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Tuesday will mark the last of the above-average temperatures enjoyed during the holiday weekend.  Even with the hot, sunny weather, Air Quality remained in check with ozone values in the Good to Low Moderate range throughout the state.  Particulates have mostly been in the Good category.

The hot weather ends, tonight, as a cold front sweeps into the state and exits about mid-day on Wednesday.  There is a chance for some convective actively, Tuesday night, but nothing too severe is expected. 

For the remainder of the work week and the beginning of the weekend, extremely pleasant weather is expected with afternoon temperatures near 70 under mostly sunny skies.  Another system may pass late Saturday leaving Sunday and Monday with a chance of showers and temperatures in the upper 70’s.

With the cooler, cleaner air expected, no Air Quality issues throughout this forecast period are expected.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Tuesday, May 31st, 2022

Next Forecast update: Monday, June 6th, 2022

5/27/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday May 27th, 2022, through Tuesday May 31st, 2022

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the mid-high Moderate range for portions of southern Michigan with the possibility of reaching USG levels.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good throughout the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Changes to the forecast for the upcoming holiday weekend warranted an updated air quality forecast summary. Today, Friday, will see the Low pressure and associated frontal boundary that has brought rain to our area leave the region. Areas throughout Michigan will see temperatures in the mid-to-high 60s F with light NNW winds. Once the Low pressure exits the region early Saturday morning, a High-pressure sets up to our south providing light winds and ample sunlight. It is not until Sunday early morning when we see a true warmup. A warm front enters the region from the south and pushes temperatures into the upper 70s F and low 80s F. Dewpoint temperatures also look to increase with peak dewpoint being around the low-to-mid 60s F Sunday afternoon. Winds look to increase throughout the day on Sunday with the predominant wind direction being from the south. With this warm front, clouds look to be present throughout the day with some hours being completely overcast.

This trend continues into Monday with overcast skies for much of the morning but looks to open up as we go through the afternoon. Temperatures continue to rise with 80-degree F temperatures expected all throughout Michigan. Along with surface air temperatures, dewpoint temperatures are expected to rise as well, with peak dewpoint approaching 70 degrees F in some areas. Winds start out from the south and slowly shift to more southwesterly as we go through the late morning and early afternoon hours. As we go into the day on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to rise into the upper-80s F for the majority of Michigan with some northern Michigan areas in the low-80s F.

In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 does not look to be an issue whatsoever, Good concentrations are expected. The ingredients are looking to be present for ozone development in the latter half of the holiday weekend. Temperatures well into the 80s F and southwesterly winds are typically two of the main surface-level criteria we look for in surface-level ozone development. Along with surface-level, upper-level criteria such as temperature and wind direction help to forecast surface ozone as well. Upper-level temperatures in upper-teens to low-twenties Celsius are expected along with southwest winds—which are both surface ozone development indicators. There are still some uncertainties at this time, however. Cloud-cover models still show broken to overcast skies on Sunday and late-Monday morning. Also, high dewpoints sometimes inhibit the development of ozone, so dewpoints well into the upper-60s F for Sunday and Monday, could pose a “cap” for surface-level ozone development. Regardless of the uncertainties, Ozone is expected to be at least in the Moderate range, with some hourly-USG levels expected. I will be looking at the forecast and expected ozone ingredients throughout the weekend in case USG levels are expected to persist for longer than a few hours. If USG levels are expected to persist in the latter half of the forecast period, an updated forecast will be sent out with an associated Action Day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A cold front is expected to come through during the day on Wednesday, washing out the buildup of concentrations and drop temperatures into the mid-60s F.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Friday May 27th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday May 31st, 2022

05/24/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday May 23rd, 2022, through Tuesday May 31st, 2022

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good for the majority of the forecast period with Moderate concentrations expected in the latter half of the period.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good to low-Moderate for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Temperatures return to the mid-60s and low-70s for much of Michigan this week as rain chances increase as we approach midweek.

To start off the week however, high-pressure is blanketing us providing ample sunlight and relatively light winds. As the week carries on, a Low-pressure system and associated frontal boundary impacts Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. The sunlight Michigan will be having today, Monday, and Tuesday gives way to rain and possible storms Wednesday and Thursday. Once the frontal boundary exits the area, clear skies return for Friday and for the majority of the upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures increase as we progress through the weekend with northerly winds progressively shifting SSE as we approach Memorial Day.

In terms of air quality, although ample sunlight is expected early in the week, ozone is not expected to be an issue. This is because of the cooler temperatures and winds predominantly coming from the north. This combination will cut-off any production of surface-level ozone. Midweek rain and cloudy skies will keep ozone at bay also and the same scenario occurs later in the week as the beginning of the week with cooler temperatures and northerly winds. A warmup later into the weekend may warrant hourly Moderate Ozone, but overall 8-hour averages should be Good. PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be light as well mainly because of the northerly winds and rain that is expected midweek. This will essentially washout any concentrations that build up from the relatively light winds early in the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warmup occurs next week as we bring in the month of June. With the warmup, Ozone concentrations are expected to increase, whereas PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. With the upcoming Memorial Day holiday, the next forecast update will be Tuesday, May 31st.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday May 23rd, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday May 31st, 2022

05/16/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 16th, 2022, through Monday, May 23rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through midweek, Moderates are possible Thursday through Saturday with Good levels returning early next week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and low-mid Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm, summerlike conditions last week caused some increased ozone on Thursday, May 12th at monitors northwest of the Detroit area. Two monitors reported low-end USG while the rest of the state ranged mostly middle to upper Moderate. Moderate ozone lingered in several locations Friday with levels improving late in the weekend. For this week, cool high pressure dominates conditions Monday and Tuesday allowing for Good ozone and fine particulate. The next system to bring precipitation moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Fine particulate may reach low Moderate at a couple southeast locations Wednesday, otherwise, pollution levels will remain Good.

A warm front lifts north Thursday bringing back southerly winds and warmer temperatures. At this time Thursday and Friday look to be our best days for Moderate ozone; however, there should be enough cloud cover, especially Friday, to keep ozone Moderate. If our thoughts on this change, we will update this forecast. A frontal boundary lingers over the state Saturday with chances for scattered precipitation. The cold front takes its time passing east late Saturday, early Sunday. Fine particulate levels late in the week may range low Moderate, but generally Good ozone is expected past Friday.

One thing to be noted early this week is there is a wildfire, the Blue Lakes Fire, currently burning in portions of Montmorency and Cheboygan counties in northeast Michigan. The fire is in a rural area roughly 2,710 acres in size and as of late Sunday was 60% contained. The closest state monitors to the fire are in Houghton Lake and Seney. So far, neither of those monitors are reporting higher fine particulate levels due to the fire. This is something we will keep an eye on. Based on monitors, satellite, and current/expected weather conditions we do not feel there are widespread adverse pollution impacts. However, anyone near the location of the fire should be aware of the threat for increased levels of fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a cool down early next week with Good air quality expected.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Wednesday, May 16th, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, May 23rd, 2022.

05/11/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday May 11th, 2022, through Monday May 16th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good to Moderate during the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As expected, south-southeast winds pushed the highest ozone concentrations towards our Flint, Otisville, and Houghton Lake monitors.  Fortunately, concentrations stayed in check with maximum 8-hour averages staying in the mid-60 ppb range.

The remainder of the work week looks to be similar to the first half of the week.  Dew point temperatures drop during Thursday and Friday providing drier air than we are experiencing Wednesday.  Optimum dew points for Michigan ozone production tend to run in the mid 60-degree range and Thursday and Friday dew points look to run more in the mid to upper 50’s.

As a result, the forecast is in the Moderate range for the Lower Peninsula, but I will keep an eye on the monitors through Friday.  The potential for elevated ozone should end during the weekend as a passing front will create a cloud cover and showers for Saturday and cleaner air for Sunday and Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be Good to Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, May 11th, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, May 16th, 2022.

05/09/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday May 9th, 2022, through Wednesday May 11th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good to Moderate. during the first half of the week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After a slow start during April, Spring weather looks to finally settle into the Midwest, this week.  The work week promises drier conditions with daily high temperatures in the 80’s.  With the longer days, stronger sun, and warmer temperatures, the threat of elevated ozone becomes a possibility.

Fortunately, the first half of the work week should be a low threat for ozone.  Surface winds will be predominantly south-southeast, which will push ozone forming pollutants over Lake Michigan towards the west side of the lake.  Locations downwind of Detroit, like the Flint and Saginaw areas will likely see the highest concentrations within the state, during this time.  Expect some cloudiness during Tuesday and Wednesday, along with potential showers during Wednesday to help subdue ozone formation and keep them in the Moderate range.

The potential for elevated ozone becomes more interesting for the last half of the work week with predominantly sunny days and temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s.  Winds become more southerly along the western lake shore which could allow for an afternoon lake breeze and higher ozone concentrations inland.  The forecast will be updated on Wednesday when there is more current information.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality could reach Moderate to USG levels for ozone during the end of the work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 9th, 2022. Next forecast update: Wednesday, May 11th, 2022.

05/02/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday May 2nd, 2022, through Monday May 9th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Michigan starts off May with high temperatures ranging from the upper-50s Fahrenheit to mid-60s Fahrenheit. A low-pressure and associated frontal system makes its way through the Midwest overnight Monday into Tuesday. The track of the low-pressure will stay to the south of Michigan but will provide rain to much of the lower peninsula all day Tuesday. As the low-pressure exits the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, Michigan dries out for a couple days as a high-pressure system tracks southward from Canada. This will provide winds coming from the north-northeast, but temperatures remain in the 60s. The dry weather is somewhat short-lived as another low-pressure takes a similar track to the one earlier in the week, but this one occurs late Thursday into Friday morning. Although not an all-day soaker, rain is expected for much of the morning and becoming spotty in the afternoon. Sunshine returns Saturday and Sunday with an increase in temperature continuing into next week.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will remain Good as there will be intermittent cloudiness throughout the week, so Ozone precursors will not have enough time to react with sunlight and build up concentrations. For PM-2.5, the rain that is expected Tuesday will help to clean out any concentrations that have built up in recent days. Also, steady wind, especially from the north, will keep concentrations at bay, but hourly Moderate conditions can be expected in southeast Michigan in the morning hours and if winds weaken.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extended forecast presents much of southern Michigan in the 70s for high temperatures next week, with northern Michigan well into the 60s. Air quality looks to remain Good as we approach next week

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday May 2nd, 2022

Next Forecast update: Monday May 9th, 2022